Jets Daily: New York Jets Football Blog

New York Jets draft review

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 01 May 2011 05:45:00 +0000

The 2011 draft was one of the strangest in its long history. With the lockout off, then back on again during the three days, it's unsure whether or not this is the last football transactions we will see this year. Nevertheless, it was another banner draft for Mike Tannenbaum and the New York Jets, as the Jets did a great job matching need and value.

1. Muhammad Wilkerson - DT - Temple
At 6-4, 315 pounds running a sub 5-second 40-yard dash, Wilkerson is an athletic specimen. His wingspan is over 7 feet, and his production matches his measurables. Wilkerson had 70 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and 13 tackles for a loss as a junior.

With Kris Jenkins out last season, the Jets relied on quiet but dependable veterans on the line like Sione Pouha, Shaun Ellis, and Mike DeVito. Wilkerson adds an athletic specimen to the list who is an ideal fit for the five-technique on first and second downs. On third downs, he's big and athletic enough to shift inside to get more pass rushers onto the field.

While several pass rushing outside linebackers were on the board like Akeem Ayers, Brooks Reed, and Jabaal Sheard, the Jets felt Wilkerson would add the most to an already potent defense. Most mock drafts had him going higher in the first round, so the value matches the need moreso than the linebackers.

The two biggest flaws on Wilkerson are that he occasionally takes plays off, and the competition level isn't that high in the MAC. However, his production and athleticism make the sky the limit for Wilkerson in Rex Ryan's defense.

3. Kenrick Ellis - NT - Hampton
It didn't seem possible, but the Jets actually drafted someone even bigger than Wilkerson with their second pick. A man Mike Tannenbaum called one of the two true nose tackles in the draft (along with Baylor's Phil Taylor), Kenrick Ellis will have the task of replacing Kris Jenkins. The Jets were happy to grab the 36th ranked player on their board late in round 3.

At 6-5, 345, Ellis is one of the biggest men in the draft. His size helped him dominate competition at Hampton as a senior, tallying an astounding 94 tackles. He's surprisingly athletic for a man his size, with a much bigger motor than one might expect.

Of course, a productive and athletic 345 pound behemoth wouldn't fall to late round 3 without some risk involved, and Ellis certainly has that. He's facing a trial later this year for assault that could put him in jail for 20 years. However, it's expected since the man he assaulted first attacked him with a baseball bat. Could you blame him for breaking the guy's jaw?

There are also the multiple failed drug tests that got him kicked out of South Carolina his freshman year. So there are plenty of red flags with Ellis. But the Jets did a lot of background work on Ellis, and they feel that he has learned from his previous mistakes and is ready to become a successful NFL player. If he can, the Jets may have just found their future nose tackle.

4. Bilal Powell - RB - Louisville
A runningback? That's the first thought many Jets fans had when they first heard this pick. With Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Joe McKnight already on board, runningback wouldn't seem to be a glaring need.

Still, Powell is the pick, and looking further into it, the pick makes sense. Greene showed up in less than ideal shape last season and has been prone to nicks and bruises. Tomlinson is entering likely his last season as a Jet. McKnight was less than impressive as a rookie. So while the Jets have three good options at runningback, there is opportunity to be seized if Powell can impress.

Like Greene, Powell is a one-year wonder known for his physicality. While not as bruising as Greene was in college, Powell is a more well-rounded back, who can catch the ball, show good vision, and contribute on special teams. For a team intent on being a run-first team, the more backs with fresh legs, the better, and Powell will offer that.

Clearly, the Jets valued Powell very highly. He made an appearance at the Jets' Florham Park facility in the pre-draft process, and the Jets chose him over more obvious needs like depth in the secondary. In year one, he'll likely compete with Joe McKnight to be active. If all goes well, it's not impossible he can compete with Greene for the starting job next season.

5. Jeremy Kerley - WR - TCU
Finally, the real Mike Tannenbaum showed up. He couldn't sit back without making any trades up. When the list of approximately five players he wanted dwindled down to one, he jumped up eight spots to secure Kerley, a receiver who projects as a special teamer and slot receiver.

While he doesn't have great size or straight-line speed, Kerley has some of the quickest feet among receivers in the draft. He's been one of the top return men in college football three years in a row. An extremely versatile player, Kerley probably will replace Brad Smith, who is likely to leave as a free agent.

He also offers protection in case Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards leave. It's very possible the Jets lose one of them and Smith as well, which would leave Patrick Turner as the main receiver after Holmes/Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery. Kerley projects as a shifty slot receiver who could be an ideal compliment to Cotchery and whichver receiver the Jets resign. There's also a good chance Kerley becomes the new kick or punt return man, though he'll have a lot of competition for those jobs.

7. Greg McElroy - QB - Alabama
The Jets are going back to the Alabama quarterback well, hoping to relive the magic of Joe Willie Namath. Not Richard Todd. McElroy wore number 12 at Alabama in honor of Namath, and he lived up to the number's reputation with his play on the field. McElroy finished his college career 24-3 as a starter, completing 66% of passes in his college career.

While he lacks the upside of many of the other quarterbacks in this class, McElroy is known as a cerebral, accurate quarterback. He threw one interception every 65.8 attempts in college, the best mark in SEC history. McElroy projects to be a game manager type in the pros, with good accuracy on short passes, and the intelligence and leadership to win games. He lacks great arm strength or a super compact throwing motion, but the Jets don't need him to be the starter.

The Jets' backup quarterbacks currently are the ancient one Mark Brunell, former 2nd round pick bust Kellen Clemens, and former Jackass 3D star Erik Ainge, who spent all of last year in drug rehab. There is room for a developmental quarterback type on the roster, with either Brunell or Clemens as the primary backup for now. McElroy will never likely challenge Sanchez for the starting job, but if he can be the long-term backup, the Jets would be very happy.

7. Scotty McKnight - WR - Colorado
No pick made Mark Sanchez happier than this one. Scotty McKnight has probably been Sanchez's best friend since the age of 8. They've developed a rapport throwing the ball around the yard from a young age, so you know Sanchez loved this pick. He was even presence at McKnight's draft party to help him celebrate the news.

As a player, McKnight lacks the ideal measurables of a receiver, at 5-11, 182, but he's also not too short to succeed. He doesn't jump as high or run as fast as people look for, but he catches everything thrown his way. He wasn't invited to the combine because of these measurables, but he was a productive college player, and he'll be a feel good story in camp. He'll draw the inevitable comparisons to Wayne Chrebet, another undersized white Jets receiver with hands of glue, and with his relationship to Sanchez, he'll be a feel-good story.

His chances of making the team will depend largely on who the Jets sign in the offseason. If Holmes and Edwards are both brought back with Cotchery, and Kerley the higher drafted player, McKnight be battling Sanchez's college teammate Patrick Turner for a roster spot.

Sanchez said before the draft that whoever got McKnight would be getting a steal. Little did he know that it would be his own team heeding his advice.

Overall, this was a great draft on paper by Tannenbaum. Obviously, grading the draft the night it finishes is a completely inexact science, but Wilkerson, Ellis, Powell, Kerley, and McElroy were all largely predicted to go earlier than when the Jets picked them. Wilkerson and Ellis also directly addressed the need for size and youth on the defensive line. While the Jets didn't grab a pass rushing linebacker as expected, this wasn't a great draft class for that type of player. Instead, the Jets will keep doing what they do to generate pressure, hoping bigger and more athletic bodies up front will create bigger holes for blitzers to run through.

Day three brought all offense on board, which may surprise people thinking the Jets might look to upgrade the defensive backfield, but that was another position this draft class wasn't particularly strong in. A late round defensive back would be unlikely to beat out Dwight Lowery, Drew Coleman, Emanuel Cook, Marquice Cole, or James Ihedigbo. Adding an impact safety or cornerback would have been helpful, but depth wasn't really that big of a need. With three Jets' receivers free agents, the Jets looked to upgrade the back-end of their receiving corps, which have provided very little in previous seasons. Powell and Kerley also should provide a boost on special teams, which should be among the best in the league again with Mike Westhoff at the helm.

Without a 2nd round pick thanks to last year's Antonio Cromartie trade, the Jets were hamstrung to fill all of their needs. However, with the picks they had, it's hard to argue the Jets did anything other than a great job. They added 660 pounds of beef to the defensive line, while adding young skill players that could help provide a spark at some point this season on offense or special teams. There were no picks here that left you scratching your head for long.

Whenever the lockout ends, the next step for the Jets is to try to resign their own players. Without adding any defensive backs in the draft, keeping Antonio Cromartie and Brodney Pool, or replacing them with similar or better players, becomes imperative. Brad Smith's days as a Jet appear numbered, while Braylon Edwards and/or Santonio Holmes are just as important as they were before the draft. Shaun Ellis and LaDainian Tomlinson have certainly been put on notice as well.

Reaction: Jets 17, Colts 16

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 07:08:00 +0000

I've been too busy smiling from ear to ear to start writing this post. After a tight football game throughout, the Jets made just enough plays in the 4th quarter to pull out a 17 to 16 win at Lucas Oil Stadium over Rex Ryan's personal nemesis, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

The first half was as sluggish as one could imagine, with the Jets failing to put up a single point. Mark Sanchez was awful. There's no sugarcoating it. He was terrible in the first half, missing a lot of throws high and long, negating the fact the Jets were running the ball with success. When the Jets finally got in scoring range, he made an ill-advised and poor throw that was intercepted by Justin Tryon.

Fortunately, the defense was great. The first three Colts drives ended in three-and-outs, and it wasn't until their fifth drive where Peyton Manning found paydirt. Pierre Garcon burned Antonio Cromartie and Brodney Pool, and Manning did not miss him. Cromartie was beaten badly, and Pool took a bad angle to the football, leading to the 57-yard touchdown.

Just like last year, Garcon was the difference-maker offensively for Indianapolis. He had less than half the receptions this time with 5, but he still had 112 yards and that long touchdown. Antonio Cromartie struggled to deal with Garcon's quickness, particularly on a few slant patterns. On the other side of the field, even Darrelle Revis's biggest fans probably wouldn't have guessed Reggie Wayne would be as non-existent as he was. Wayne ended up with one catch for one yard. Revis was all over him all game long, and Manning, like most quarterbacks this season, would not test him. For good reason.

The Jets would get the ball to start the second half, with a 7-0 deficit. Rex Ryan ripped into his football team in the locker room, particularly the offense and Cromartie for allowing the long touchdown. The team responded. Led by a dominant offensive line, the Jets gashed the Colts on the ground in the second half. With Sanchez struggling, the Jets kept the ball on the ground more, and it worked. In their first drive, the Jets marched 63 yards on 10 plays, 8 of them rushes.

The Colts responded with a decent drive of their own, culminating in a 47-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal, but the Jets picked up where they left off on their second drive. Starting off at their own 13 yard line, the Jets, drove the length of the field, with no play going longer than 11 yards. 10 minutes of game time later, the Jets were in the endzone, giving them their first lead of the game of 4 points.

Once again, Manning got the ball, and once again, he moved the ball well before the Jets finally stiffened and forced another field goal, holding the lead. The last play of the drive was a 3rd-and-7 draw play to Dominic Rhodes. It was the third time in two drives that Manning audibled to a draw play on a 3rd-and-7 or more, but this time, the Jets were there to stop it. Vinatieri made the kick, and it was a 14-13 Jet lead.

The Jets appeared to go three-and-out after Santonio Holmes dropped a catchable pass on third down. But Taj Smith of the Colts ran into Steve Weatherford, prompting a five yard penalty, and giving the Jets new life. Once again, the Jets ran, ran, threw incomplete, and punted, and this time, nobody ran into Weatherford who booted his fourth touchback of the night, tying his season total in that stat.

From there, it appeared to be a slow death for Gang Green. Manning went from his own 20 to the cusp of field goal range in just four plays. But when Manning needed one more first down to ensure the Jets not getting another chance, his pass barely fell incomplete on 3rd down. Vinatieri was given a 50-yard field goal attempt to take the lead, and Vinatieri did what he normally does, drilling a clutch kick in the playoffs to give his team the lead.

Only the Jets weren't done. Antonio Cromartie returned the kickoff 47 yards to the Jet 46. Sanchez then settled down, finding Edwards on a slant for 9, Holmes on an out for 11, and finally Edwards down the sideline for 18 yards to set up Nick Folk's game-winning field goal. Folk made it, saving his Jet career and the season, and sending the Jets to New England.

It certainly wasn't perfect. Sanchez looked horrible for most of the game. The defense couldn't force any turnovers. But the Jets regained their identity of a ground-and-pound running team, finishing with 169 yards on the ground. As a result, they won time of possession by 7 minutes and held Manning to just three drives in the second half.

The Jets have been a resilient team most of the season, and today was no different. They were down 7 at halftime, and they trailed with under a minute left. But they made the plays when they had to. That's the bottom line.

Can the Jets beat the Patriots? That's the key question now. New England is usually dominant at home and after a bye week, but the way they've played for the last month, a week off couldn't really make them much better than they are now. The same questions remain: can Sanchez make enough plays? Can the Jets get any pressure on Tom Brady?

All that matters now is that they have the opportunity. That's all you can ask for at this point. After getting revenge against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, now they have a chance against the team that embarrassed them just over a month ago. Stage one of the gauntlet has been complete. It's one thing to defeat a banged up Colts team. It's another to knock off Tom Brady and the 14-2 Patriots. But anything can happen. Just look at the Seahawks knocking off the Saints. Or, if you want a Jets' example, look back to week 2 this year, when Gang Green handed the Pats one of their two losses. It won't be easy, and Sanchez needs to play light years ahead of last season. But if the Jets can continue to play solid defense and run the ball like they did today, they have a chance.

Jets vs Colts Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sat, 08 Jan 2011 23:31:00 +0000

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
January 8, 2011, 8:00 PM, NBC
Lucas Oil Stadium

After a year of waiting, it's finally put up or shut up time for Rex Ryan's Jets. The offseason was dedicated to finding enough players defensively to beat the Colts, and now, against a beat up Colts squad, the Jets have their chance. Rex Ryan is 0-9 lifetime against Peyton Manning, but with no Dallas Clark, no Austin Collie, and a defense missing several starters, they won't have a better chance to pick off the Colts than now. Being on the road is an obstacle, but unlike last year, the Jets probably have a better team than the Colts, and it's up to proving that on the field. This game here may be the biggest game in Rex Ryan and Brian Schottenheimer's coaching career because unlike last year, the Jets have the personnel to win this game.

When the Jets have the ball...
The Colts' run defense has been maligned all season, but three straight strong performances to close out the season give them some confidence heading into the playoffs. However, in each of those games, they faced one-dimensional running offenses, so they stacked the box and dared them to throw. Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tennessee were all able to throw the ball fairly well, but not well enough to win. Against the Jets, expect the Colts to do more of the same, daring Mark Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez's shoulder sounds like it's okay, but he's a hit-or-miss quarterback. However, he has much better weapons on the outside than any of those teams.

The key is for the Jets to come out and back the Colts defense off a little. Look for the Colts to stack the box again, opening up the passing game on early downs for Sanchez. Schottenheimer needs to trust him to throw the ball on first down. Doing so could allow the Jets to move the ball down the field in chunks and open up the running game for later.

When the Jets do run the ball, Shonn Greene needs to be a big factor. In last year's game, Greene was running very well, starting to gash the Colts defense. His physical running style needs to pound the Colts in the second half. LaDainian Tomlinson can be sprinkled in, particularly on passing downs, but Greene is the better back right now. Now is the time to unleash him.

The biggest strength the Colts have on defense is a set of dynamic pass rushing ends in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. D'Brickashaw Ferguson will likely matchup against Freeney, a key matchup to match all day between an elite pass rusher and an elite pass blocker. Mathis will go against either Wayne Hunter or Damien Woody. Either player can be beat off the edge occasionally by Mathis's speed. Look for a lot of plays with Hunter or Robert Turner eligible at tight end, particularly on passing downs, to help in pass protection. With Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Dustin Keller, Jerricho Cotchery, and a runningback all rotating in and out, there will be enough weapons on the field where the Jets should be able to move the ball. Not to mention the wildcard factor of Brad Smith, who will get a few chances under center as well as handle kick returns in this game. He's a threat any time he has the ball in his hands.

This Colts' defense is hanging on by smoke and mirrors right now. As long as the Jets don't fall into a predictable pattern, they should be able to move the ball. The Colts will play bend-but-not-break defense, but near the endzone, they stiffen up a bit. The Jets need to fight through that and stick the ball in the endzone. They have the personnel to do it. And with Peyton Manning on the other sideline, the Jets need all the points they can get. This is a big game for Brian Schottenheimer, as the Colts' defense can absolutely be beaten, especially if he calls a game that keeps the Colts backpedaling and Sanchez in a rhythm.

When the Colts have the ball...
As always, Peyton Manning runs the Colts' offense. Manning threw more passes than any other quarterback in the NFL, and he had one of the shakier seasons of his career. But his stats look strikingly similar to last year's, even without Dallas Clark and Austin Collie for significant chunks of the season.

This is the game where the loss of those two players will be as big a factor as ever. The best way to beat the Jets is by exposing the linebackers and extra defensive backs in coverage, and to do that, you use tight ends and slot receivers. Clark and Collie may be the best at those particular roles in the NFL at this point. Jacob Tamme is a nice young player, and Blair White works hard, but they aren't nearly as good as the men they are replacing.

However, while Clark and Collie remain out, Joseph Addai is back. Addai ran for 80 yards in last year's AFC Championship, and added a 21 yard touchdown in the regular season battle. He's also the best weapon the Colts have in the passing game out of the backfield. Putting a linebacker on him is a mismatch in the Colts' favor, and Manning can exploit that.

On the outside, the Jets' cornerbacks match up well with the Colts' primary receivers. Darrelle Revis has been great once again this year, only this time around, teams aren't even challenging him. Last year, the man Revis primarily covered, Reggie Wayne, was not a big factor, as Manning exploited Dwight Lowery, Lito Sheppard, and Drew Coleman. Wayne will again see Revis opposite him, meaning Pierre Garcon vs Antonio Cromartie will be a huge matchup. Garcon posted 11 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown in last year's AFC Championship game, but the Jets didn't have Cromartie, a tall, fast athlete who has had a good career against Manning. Both Garcon and Cromartie are inconsistent players. That might be the matchup to watch, as both can make unbelievable plays, and both can suffer mental lapses. One of those players will likely make an impact play to help win the game for his team, so watch out for those two.

The good news for the Jets is that Colts OT Ryan Diem is unlikely to play with a back injury. The Jets have struggled all season to get a consistent pass rush, but with Diem out, that's a big hole at right tackle that will be filled by a rookie free agent. If Jason Taylor and the Jets' edge rushers can generate pressure and force Manning out of rhythm all game, the Jets will almost certainly win this game. More likely, they will get spurts of a pass rush, but Manning will make his fair share of plays.

Prediction:
The Jets are a better team than the Colts at every position except quarterback and pure pass rusher. New York runs the ball better, stops the run better, and stops the pass better than Indianapolis, the keys will be just how dominant Manning and the Colts' passing game can be, and whether or not the Jets can convert yards into points. But when all is said and done, the Jets have more ways to make big plays on all three facets of the game: offense, defense, and special teams. Manning has to be in peak form to win this game and probably put up 30 points or more. It's certainly possible, but he has to outplay Sanchez by a lot, and the Jets will put their fair share of points on the board.
Jets 30, Colts 24

Jets dominate Bills 38-7, prepare for Colts in playoffs

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 07:22:00 +0000

In essentially an exhibition game, the Jets whipped the Buffalo Bills 38-7 to close out the regular season.

The Jets held out LaDainian Tomlinson, Shonn Greene, Darrelle Revis, and Antonio Cromartie, while Mark Sanchez played just one series, not throwing a single pass. Other starters like Nick Mangold and Dustin Keller barely played at all. And even without all of these players, the backups stepped up and not only won the game, but imposed their will on the Bills.

Buffalo was relegated to third string quarterback Brian Brohm, and it showed. In just his second career start, he was overwhelmed by the Jets, who forced six turnovers by the time the game was over. The Bills' offense managed just 162 yards and zero points. The only touchdown was scored on an ill-advised throw by Mark Brunell that Bills' safety Jairus Byrd returned 37 yards for the score.

It was a simply dominant performance by the defense. The only chance the Bills had of scoring was on their very first drive. But safety Emanuel Cook stripped Steve Johnson, and Dwight Lowery recovered it. The Bills never returned to the red zone the rest of the game.

Offensively, without the quarterback, runningbacks, and center, it was a very stripped down Jets' attack. But it didn't matter. Rookie Joe McKnight became the workhorse, getting 32 carries for 158 yards. The much maligned rookie had a huge game, showing patience and burst through the hole, as well as showing off talents returning punts, catching passes, and covering kicks. Fullback John Conner also added 44 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries in a game where the backups received most of the playing time.

You couldn't have written a better script for the Jets. They got the win in dominant fashion while still able to rest their starters. Momentum switches week to week, but a performance like this without the team's stars must be a confidence boost heading into the playoffs.

With Kansas City losing to Oakland, the Indianapolis Colts clinched the #3 seed and the right to host the Jets in the first round of the playoffs. Peyton Manning's team ended the Jets' season last year 12 months ago on the same field, prompting Rex Ryan to acquire Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson to improve the secondary. Now is the time to prove the Jets have made the necessary strides.

Obviously, it's more desirable to face a Matt Cassel-led team than a Manning-led team in the playoffs, but the Colts are a shell of what they were last season. Arguably, Manning's two favorite targets, Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, are injured, and the running game has been inconsistent all season. Defensively, Indianapolis has struggled stopping the run, and the secondary hasn't made many big plays this season. Any team with Manning at quarterback is very dangerous, but the Jets may be the better team.

If the Jets can get by the Colts, their revenge tour would continue in New England. There's a very good chance the Jets need to face Manning, Brady, and Roethlisberger on the way to the Super Bowl, all on the road. This is the hole the Jets have dug themselves. Now, their backs are against the wall. Four wins in a row will bring the first Super Bowl title to the green and white since 1969. Nobody thinks the Jets can do it, but as long as Rex Ryan is inspiring the team, you can never count the Jets out. For despite all of Ryan's bravado, the Jets remain the underdog, albeit a dangerous one.

Jets vs Bills Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 02 Jan 2011 08:03:00 +0000

Buffalo Bills (4-11) at New York Jets (10-5)
Sunday, January 2, 2011, 1:00 PM
New Meadowlands Stadium

With a playoff spot in hand, the Jets close out their regular season Sunday against the lowly Bills, who have actually gone 4-3 after an 0-8 start. With the Jets not at full strength, resting players before the playoffs next week, Buffalo has a chance to finish above .500 in the last half of the season. But quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's playing status is in doubt, and without him, the Bills don't appear to offer much of a threat. As for the Jets, the only way they can upgrade their playoff seed is by winning and having Pittsburgh lose and Baltimore win. So expect to see a lot of backups in the game, including backup quarterback Mark Brunell, for an extended period of time.

When the Jets have the ball...
Mark Sanchez has bounced back after a pair of bad games with back-to-back strong performances against Pittsburgh and Chicago. In an essentially meaningless game, Rex Ryan still plans to play Sanchez to preserve his hot hand heading into the playoffs. With a young quarterback short on experience, it's only a bad decision if he's either awful or he gets hurt. More repetitions couldn't hurt for him. Buffalo is the 4th ranked pass defense, but that's exaggerated because of how often they're behind. The Bills did intercept Sanchez five times right next door last year, so there is some potential for a bad game.

The Bills have a few solid players on their defense, namely DT Kyle Williams, LB Paul Posluszny, and a solid secondary. Last week, they ran into the Patriots buzzsaw which ate the Bills alive with the short passing game. The Jets have been playing well, but with the Bills trying to redeem themselves after last week's embarrassment, a good showing here would be a good omen for the playoffs.

It's been the run defense which has hurt Buffalo this year. They are dead last as a unit in stopping the run. The Bills haven't allowed many long runs, but they can be gashed for consistent positive yardage, as the Jets did in the first matchup. Both Shonn Greene and LaDainan Tomlinson ran for 100 yards that game. With the running game looking to have a signature moment to show it's productive again, this will be a game the Jets try to regain their swagger running the ball.

As far as subs are concerned, Sanchez probably will not play the whole game. Even if it's close, I expect Ryan to eventually pull him. Also, look for young players like Joe McKnight and Vladimir Ducasse to get extended looks. This is a prime time for the Jets to evaluate some young talent for the future. McKnight will probably be the fourth quarter runningback, seeing if the rookie can do something to give the fans some hope for the future. And, of course, Mark Brunell will play, bringing a short passing game and very little else to the field when he comes into the game.

When the Bills have the ball...
Like the Jets, gameplanning for the Bills depends on who plays quarterback for them, and that will be a gametime decision. Ryan Fitzpatrick has brought respectability back to the Bills in recent weeks, but he was awful last week and didn't practice all week. Former Louisville star and Packer washout Brian Brohm would get the start if Fitzpatrick can't go.

No matter who starts, however, the offense will begin and end with the running game. Fred Jackson is an underrated all-purpose back whom the Bills will feed to try to keep the Jets' offense off the field, especially if Brohm starts. In 3 of their 4 wins, Jackson has rushed over 100 yards. It's also the last chance Buffalo has to show off the 9th overall pick, C.J. Spiller, a highly touted rookie who hasn't made much of an impact this season.

The Jets bring a stout run defense into the game, but they've been humbled in back-to-back weeks by Rashard Mendenhall and Matt Forte. Both ran very well against the Jets defense. Again, the Bills will be a nice tune-up for the playoffs, with a run-first offense led by a two-headed rushing attack, not dissimilar to what they could face in Kansas City in round one of the playoffs. Shutting down Jackson and Spiller would be a very encouraging sign, and it should lead the Jets to victory if they can do that.

The one place on the field the Jets are most likely to rest players is in the secondary. Safeties Jim Leonhard, James Ihedigbo, and Eric Smith will all be out, while cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie will likely play part-time to rest hamstring and groin injuries respectively. The Bills' Steve Johnson has become a major weapon with 1001 yards and 10 touchdowns in his third season. With good size and deceptive speed, he could be a difficult matchup for Drew Coleman, Marquice Cole, or Kyle Wilson, whenever Revis and Cromartie are out of the game.

If Fitzpatrick plays, the Bills have a chance to put up a few points against the Jets' backups through the air. Until last week, the Bills had been relatively solid at keeping their quarterbacks upright. It will be hard for the Jets to manufacture a pass rush. This could be a week to try new things and see if they can get some confidence in getting after the quarterback with the playoffs just a week away. Rex Ryan challenged the defense to get better. This is the final tune-up before the playoffs begin. Expect the defense to come out inspired after last week's debacle, but the lack of personnel could be an issue.

Prediction:
With no word on Fitzpatrick and no clarity on just how much Rex Ryan will play his starters, it's hard to predict this game. It's most likely meaningless for the Jets other than securing an above .500 record at home in their first year at the New Meadowlands Stadium. Both teams were embarrassed last week. I really think the difference in this game could be who starts at quarterback for the Bills. The Jets will run the ball well in this game, but if Fitzpatrick plays, he could move the ball a little through the air against the Jets' younger secondary. Five turnovers last week nonwithstanding, he usually is better at taking care of the ball and making quicker decisions than Brohm, who has not made his mark in the NFL at all. It sounds like Brohm is going to play. In that case, look for the Jets' exotic blitzes to force the inexperienced quarterback into several mistakes and for the Jets running game to overwhelm the Bills in a similar script to the week 4 blowout.

Jets 27, Bills 17 (if Fitzpatrick plays, 27-24 Jets)

Jets lose in shootout but clinch playoff berth

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 08:08:00 +0000

Just when the offense finally hits its stride, the defense self-destructs. In one of the most exciting and high-scoring games of the season, the Chicago Bears defeated the New York Jets 38-34 at Soldier Field.

Mark Sanchez played brilliantly for most of the game before throwing an interception on the Jets' final drive with under a minute to go. He finished 24-37 for 269 yards and a touchdown to go with that pick. It should have been two touchdowns, but Dustin Keller dropped an easy touchdown pass late in the 2nd quarter. The Jets ended up settling for a field goal, a point swing which ended up being big.

The Jets came out of both halves flat, with the Bears jumping on them early. Chicago scored the first 10 points, 7 of which were set up by a Santonio Holmes fumble. The Jets answered with a nice scoring drive, culminating in a Shonn Greene run. A minute and four seconds later, Dwight Lowery intercepted Dwight Lowery and returned it to the endzone to give the Jets a 14-10 lead. A LaDainian Tomlinson touchdown seven minutes later gave the Jets 21 unanswered points, and it looked like they were on their way.

Sanchez completed his first 9 passes, and Greene was running hard early, so it looked like the Jets would be able to score at will on the Bears. And they were. Only the Bears would score more.

The next drive, the pass rush that had been getting to Cutler for the first quarter and a half suddenly disappeared. And just like that, so did the Jets chances of winning. Cutler ran for a score on the Bears' next drive as they went right down the field on the Jets' defense.

Nick Folk added a field goal before the half, after Keller dropped a pass in the endzone. The 3rd quarter was all Chicago. After the Jets went three-and-out, Rex Ryan, Brian Schottenheimer, and Mike Westhoff opted for a fake punt that involved Sanchez lining up as the up-man. Brad Smith couldn't bring in the conversion, and the Jets turned the ball over at their own 40. Cutler found Johnny Knox burning Dwight Lowery for a touchdown on the very next play. The Jets again went three-and-out their next possession. This time, Steve Weatherford punted the ball to Devin Hester, who returned the punt 38 yards. Hester then scored three plays later on a deep ball from Cutler to give the Bears a touchdown lead.

But the Jets weren't done yet. The Jets marched 66 yards on four plays, with Sanchez finding a wide open Santonio Holmes in the endzone to tie the game. Unfortunately, the defense once again relented the lead right back. Buoyed by more great field position, Cutler brought the Bears 49 yards, with Knox scoring his second touchdown of the game.

The Jets then decided to slow the game down. Ryan did not feel his team was equipped for a shootout, so this time the Jets went on a longer drive, relying on short passes and runs. But the 12 play drive faltered in the red zone, setting up Folk's second field goal. The Jets caught a break with Bears kicker Robbie Gould missing a 35-yard field goal to keep the deficit at 4. Again, the Jets went on a 12 play drive, but the drive stalled at the 35-yardline, where the Jets punted. After forcing a three-and-out, the Jets got the ball back but couldn't get a first down of their own. Again, Weatherford punted, pinning the Bears at the 10. Matt Forte ran for one first down, killing the clock all the way down to 1:03 left before the Jets got the ball back. The Jets hopes were quickly dashed when Bears safety Chris Harris intercepted Sanchez on a deep ball down the sideline to end the game.

The sting from this game ended quickly with news that the Jets clinched a playoff spot anyway. But the defense's problems raise a number of red flags. Cutler accounted for four touchdowns, while Forte became the first back to rush over 100 yards all season against the Jets. Part of the problem was the Soldier Field turf, which caused horrible footing all day long for defenses reacting to offensive movements. That definitely didn't help. But that doesn't change the fact that for the second straight week, the opposing runningback broke a lot of tackles and was able to consistently move the chains.

And the pass rush was completely nonexistent after the first 20 minutes. Cutler was barely touched as he was able to wait for his speedy receivers to gain separation. It's no secret that a Mike Martz offense wants to throw the ball down the field, and Cutler was able to slice and dice the Jets' secondary all game long. He was sacked just twice in the game and barely hurried, despite coming into the game with a league-high 48 sacks.

Offensively, there was a lot to like. For the second straight week, Sanchez had time to throw and made the most of it. Keller, Holmes, and Braylon Edwards each had at least 69 yards. Keller and Holmes did have key miscues that hurt the offense, but they really can't take the blame for this loss. Shonn Greene also looked very good running the ball for 70 yards on just 12 carries. However, LaDainian Tomlinson continued to struggle, tallying just 28 yards on 13 carries. When the playoffs come, it's imperative the Jets give the ball more to Greene, who has clearly been the better runner as of late. He's also made strides in the passing game, enough so that it isn't obvious that when he's in the game, he's getting the carry.

The Jets had 393 yards to the Bears' 322. But not surprisingly, the turnover battle and special teams were the difference. Both teams converted early turnovers into touchdowns, but the Jets turning the ball over on downs in the 3rd quarter and interception on their last drive were both key moments in the game. Both teams pride themselves on strong special teams. However, while Weatherford had one of the prettiest coffin corners you will ever see late, the Bears outclassed the Jets in this regard. The Jets were scared to kick it deep to Devin Hester and Danieal Manning. And when they did kick it deep, they burned the Jets.

However, despite the problems in this game, the Jets have two weeks to get them straightened out before the playoffs. Gang Green is locked into the six seed, which likely means a trip to Kansas City or possibly Indianapolis or Jacksonville. Because of this, there's little chance Sanchez or a number of other starters that could use a rest will play next week. The week 17 home game against Buffalo is now meaningless except for record-keeping, so the Jets will probably work more on preparing for the playoffs than anything else.

Critics will call it backing into the playoffs, but the Jets all but clinched last week. Getting into the playoffs at 10-5 in week 16 is not backing into the playoffs, even if mathematically, the Jets clinched after a loss. Since the loss to Miami, it's been clear the Jets needed to win one of their last four games to make the playoffs, and that's just what they did last week against Pittsburgh. You can't back in when there is still another game on the schedule.

Still, Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine need to hit the film room hard and figure out just why the defense has gotten embarrassed two of the last four weeks. It's impossible to change personnel now, but the coaching staff needs to figure out some way to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Because of that, and the Jets lack of playmakers at safety, the Jets struggle mightily to get interceptions. Moving Lowery to safety gets another ballhawk in the game, but he's limited, and good quarterbacks won't force bad throws when they have all day to throw.

All year, this team has shown flashes of everything. Sometimes, the run defense is elite. Sometimes, the pass defense looks tough to beat. Sometimes, the running game can consistently move the ball. Sometimes, the passing game clicks. Sometimes, special teams can make some big plays. But it's been impossible for all the units to click at the same time. Last week at Pittsburgh was close, but even then, the defense was one play away from losing that game and giving this season an entirely different feel. The Jets are what they are at this point, and that's a good team but one that lacks the consistency or identity to make a Super Bowl run. Things can change if the Jets can get some confidence in the playoffs and the right matchups. But if the Jets can't force Jay Cutler off his rhythm behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, it's hard to imagine them throwing Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or even Matt Cassel off his game in the postseason.

Week 16 NFL Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 26 Dec 2010 17:17:00 +0000

Finally, a winning week last week at 2-1, bringing my season record to 22-18-2. Let's get right to my week 16 picks, and let's hope I can clinch an above .500 season this week.

Redskins +7 over Jaguars
Washington is a mess, but I am not a believer in Jacksonville. The Jaguars will miss Maurice Jones-Drew their best offensive playmaker. Rashad Jennings is an adequate fill-in at runningback, but really, I think that without those two players, the spread should be closer to 4. Both teams have negative point differentials on the season. Players on Washington are playing for their jobs last year, and they showed some fight coming back last week. Look for them to give the Jaguars a real test this week. Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, and Chris Cooley should be able to get open against the Jacksonville secondary, and Ryan Torain has brought back the running game. Look for one of the more entertaining games of the day, but one that will definitely fall within the number.
Jaguars 31, Redskins 28

Bengals +8.5 over Chargers
San Diego is coming off back-to-back blowout wins. That's a perfect recipe to fade them the next week. Cincinnati finally got back to winning last week. No surprise, it was the same week where Terrell Owens was hurt, and the Bengals got back to a run-first offense. This team completely revamped their offensive philosophy when they brought in Owens. Now, they will get back to basics. This could be a letdown spot for Norv Turner and the Chargers in freezing Cincinnati. Getting over a touchdown, I'm feeling pretty confident.
Chargers 20, Bengals 17

Chiefs -4.5 over Titans
Kansas City is a better team than everyone expected. Tennessee looked good last week, but their season is all but over. The Chiefs are undefeated at home and have all the motivation to win this game. The Titans' defense is mediocre at best, and Kerry Collins is not a good quarterback. The Titans have a few weapons offensively, but the Chiefs have enough on defense to slow Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt. With Matt Cassel playing, the Chiefs have the edge at almost every position. Giving less than a touchdown at home, I'll take the Chiefs.
Chiefs 27, Titans 17

Jets vs Bears Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 26 Dec 2010 08:18:00 +0000

New York Jets (10-4) at Chicago Bears (10-4)
December 26, 2010, 1:00 PM
Soldier Field
Line: Jets +2

After righting a season that could have easily spiraled out of control last week in Pittsburgh, the Jets look to clinch a berth in the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Chicago accomplished that feat last week, assuring themselves of the NFC North title last Monday night. The Jets will be the more desperate team, but the Bears also control their own destiny for a first-round bye, so they have motivation as well. These are two similar teams in a lot of ways. Both the Jets and the Bears have been road warriors this season, with 6-1 road records and 4-3 home records. Both teams rely on stout defenses with shaky offenses. In cold Soldier Field, look for a tight, low-scoring battle between two fairly evenly matched teams.

When the Jets have the ball...
The biggest key for the Jets winning this game is not turning the ball over. The Bears thrive on forcing turnovers. They've forced 31 turnovers this season, so avoiding them will be a huge obstacle. Mark Sanchez has not been a very good quarterback in his young career in very cold weather games, so this will be a big test for him. He got by the Polamalu-less Steelers without turning the ball over. If he can do it again, it would be huge for his confidence going forward.

Last week, the Jets were able to get more room on the ground than expected against the mighty Steelers. Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and the Bears' front seven will be a similarly difficult test. The Bears allow 3.8 yards-per-carry on the year, although teams have been able to punch in 12 touchdowns on the ground. The lack of Damien Woody will once again hurt, but the Jets will probably continue to give RT Wayne Hunter help on the outside by using OL Robert Turner as a tight end. Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson simply haven't been impressive lately. Tomlinson showed flashes last week, but he needs to do more. Both seem to be one broken tackle away from breaking a few longer runs, but they just can't seem to do it. On a cold, windy day in Chicago, the Jets will need their running game to make their mark and at least be a threat, or they will have a very difficult time winning this game. The unit doesn't have to be dominant, but it must make the Bears respect the run.

If the Jets want to score this game, it will be on the shoulders of Sanchez and the passing game. As tough as the Bears defense is, they do allow opposing quarterbacks to dink and dunk. Lovie Smith is a disciple of the Tony Dungy/Herman Edwards Tampa-2 system that doesn't allow plays deep down the field. A stout run defense and a unit that doesn't allow big plays is tough to score on, especially with the Jets as shaky as they have been offensively. Chicago will force them to string out long drives and grind out first downs. Converting those long drives into touchdowns has been a constant problem this year, and that's exactly what Chicago will force the Jets to do. Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and Tomlinson all have the ability to win their individual matchups, but we've seen far too many plays on third down that leave you shaking your head to assume the Jets will convert on third down like they have to. Sure enough, the Bears defense holds opponents to a 35% conversion rate on third downs, one of the best in the league.

In each of the four losses this year, the Jets failed to score a touchdown. Last week, the special teams picked up the slack with Brad Smith returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown. Sanchez had the one offensive touchdown on a naked bootleg. The Jets are undefeated this year when they score a touchdown and winless when they don't. With points sure to be at a premium, look for that trend to hold, for better or for worse.

When the Bears have the ball...
The Bears' offense has been odd to watch all season long. There are speedy playmakers like Johnny Knox and Devin Hester that can get deep and make plays in a Mike Martz offense. Yet, the Bears are near the bottom of the league in passes of both 20+ yards and 40+ yards. The offensive line has gotten Cutler sacked a league-high 48 times this year, yet the running game has been slightly better than last season.

Still, against the Jets, running room will be hard to find. Rashard Mendenhall's 99-yard performance last week was impressive, but Matt Forte is not nearly as talented as Mendenhall. Forte is still a versatile threat who can do some work inside the tackles and outside in the passing game. He's been running well of late, but the Jets will be the best run defense he's faced in a while. Look for him to be more of a threat in the passing game on third downs.

Passing the ball, the Bears are another one of those teams, like New England and Cleveland, where there is no clear-cut number one receiver to gameplan against. Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie will take turns matching up with Knox, Hester, and Earl Bennett. If Cutler is smart, he'll try to follow the lead of other quarterbacks against the Jets and attack the nickel back. He's said this week he'll challenge Revis, but that's probably foolish. Knox and Hester do have elite top-end speed, though, so if Revis or Cromartie were to get beat, it would probably be on a deep ball.

That is, if Cutler has time. While the Jets' pass rush has been solved by a large part of the NFL, the Bears are a very good matchup for the Jets. Mike Martz's offenses traditionally send a lot of people into passing routes, which would give the Bears less help against the Jets' pass rush. As much maligned as the front seven has been this season in getting to the quarterback, the Jets do have 35 sacks on the year. Cutler gets sacked more than anyone in the NFL, so look for the Jets to disrupt Cutler's timing and possibly even force some turnovers for once. If Cutler takes a lot of five and seven step drops, the Jets will make him pay.

Prediction
This is a classic, cold weather football team between two strong defensive teams. The key will be which team can force more turnovers. Will the Jets force Cutler back to his interception-happy ways by sending a lot of blitz looks at him? Or will the Bears feast on Sanchez's tendencies and pick off some passes of their own? When all is said and done, the Jets have more motivation to win this game and are more likely to stick with a ball-control offense to win the game. This is a toss-up, but with the Bears playing on short rest, look for the Jets to win another game that goes right down to the wire.
Jets 16, Bears 10

The Day After: Jets end slide, beat Steelers 22-17

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 07:01:00 +0000

What a difference a week makes.

After all the drama surrounding the Jets last week, about the losing streak, about talking too much, about Sal Alosi, about a large part of the nation doubting the Jets, Gang Green responded with a 22-17 win on the road in Pittsburgh.

It wasn't pretty, but when have the Jets ever played pretty football? The main issue heading into the game was just how the Jets would score points on Pittsburgh. The news of Troy Polamalu's injury relieved some doubts. But after not scoring a touchdown in the last two games, Brad Smith returned the opening kickoff 97 yards to end that ignominious streak.

The Jets earned their 22 points creatively. Smith's kickoff set the tone. The sole offensive touchdown was on a 4th-and-1 Mark Sanchez quarterback bootleg. Nick Folk made both of his field goal attempts. Finally, Jason Taylor notched a safety to cap the score at 22.

The defense wasn't lights out, but like the offense, it was good enough to win. On the final drive of the game, when Ben Roethlisberger drove his team down the field for a potential game-winning score, he went all the way to the 10-yard line, before the Jets finally stopped the Steelers at the goalline.

This was a slugfest, with both teams being able to move the ball okay offensively. But when it counted, the Jets made a few plays late and Ben Roethlisberger's pass as time expired fell incomplete. If the Steelers completed that drive with a touchdown, there would be a ton of second-guessing and panic this week. Instead, the Jets snuck away with a huge conference win against the likely AFC North champions, despite being outgained by 102 yards.

Most of the targets of criticism during the week responded strongly. Sanchez was on target almost all game, scoring the team's only offensive touchdown. Brian Schottenheimer made some great playcalls in key spots, most notably the aforementioned Sanchez naked bootleg. The special teams unit was stellar, as Brad Smith scored a touchdown and 3 of Steve Weatherford's 4 punts were downed inside the 20.

This wasn't a great overall performance, but it was refreshing to see the team compliment each other so well. Special teams made an early statement, the offense answered after the Steelers scored after halftime, and the defense not only held onto the lead but extended it with Taylor's huge safety. The team was well-prepared and, for the most part, well-coached.

The biggest issues with the coaching staff almost all have to do with clock management. Rex Ryan has yet to show he's a competent time manager as head coach. Where's Dick Curl when you need him? At the end of the first half, the Jets ran a conservative, half-hearted effort to move the ball down the field. With 29 seconds left and two time outs, the Jets got the ball at their own 37. Rather than try to move the ball down the field and add some points before the half, the Jets threw a 6-yard pass in the middle of the field, didn't call time out, and went into halftime without even trying. If you're going to throw the ball, go all out. If you're not calling time out, don't throw the ball short in the middle of the field, just run it. Tipped passes and mistakes can happen.

They should have tried to move the ball and get the lead. Pittsburgh was to receive the ball in the 2nd half, the Jets should have tried to steal some momentum. It's not as if Sanchez was playing poorly.

Then, later in the game with the lead, the Jets ran three pass plays that fell incomplete, stopping the clock. Run the ball any of those plays, and the Steelers likely don't have time for their near-comeback. Facing a 2nd-and-5 from the Steeler 32, the Jets ran back-to-back passes, then punted. With such good field position and the lead, the Jets should have run at least one of those plays. Maybe you pick up a few yards and get in more comfortable field goal range. Maybe you pick up the 1st down. But at worst, the clock keeps running, and brings you closer to the end of the game. Then on a 3rd-and-3 with 2:24 left, the Jets threw the ball again. I didn't hate the playcall, but getting another 20 seconds off the clock would have been huge. If you throw, you better complete the pass. Stopping the clock three more times than necessary gave Pittsburgh enough time to scare the living daylights out of Jets fans.

3rd down defense was also a problem. The Steelers had their way with the Jets on 3rd down, going 11-17. This extended drives, kept the defense on the field, and almost cost the Jets the game. On the final drive alone, the Steelers started at the 8 yard line, and the defense let them march 82 yards. That included 3 third down conversions, most notably a 3rd-and-24, in which Emmanuel Sanders was left wide open in the middle of the field for a 29-yard gain. That's inexcusable. The Jets have struggled in 3rd and long situations all season long, and that was one of the most glaring examples.

Still, you have to hand it to the Jets. Against a difficult opponent, albeit one struggling offensively and missing its defensive captain, the Jets suffered adversity and came out ahead. They ran the ball better than expected, as LaDainian Tomlinson looked good on his 11 carries for 45 yards. The receivers didn't drop any passes. Braylon Edwards, in particular, had a big game, posting 100 yards on the day. Drew Coleman sacked Roethlisberger twice and forced two fumbles.

After this, the Jets travel to Chicago to face the Bears. Lovie Smith's team clinched the NFC North title on Monday night, but they still are fighting for seeding. Still, coming off a short week after playing on a basically frozen field, the Bears could have a bit of a letdown. Just like last week, the Jets will be facing a tough defense that thrives on stopping the run. The confidence Sanchez gained this week will have to carry over next week, as the Jets need to be able to pass the ball and beware of turnovers to win. Chicago tackles very well and knows how to force turnovers as well as any defense in the NFL, so if the Jets play mistake-free football again, they should be able to win their 7th game on the road. Like this week, however, it will not be easy.

Jets look to end losing streak at Pittsburgh

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 19 Dec 2010 06:05:00 +0000

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
December 19, 2010, 4:15 PM EST
Heinz Field
Line: Jets +6

The Jets look to end two losing streaks against Pittsburgh, the two game skid that has dropped them out of legitimate consideration for the AFC East title, as well as get their first win ever on the road in Pittsburgh against six losses. The Steelers own a one game lead and probably the tiebreaker over the Ravens in the AFC North. However, their trademark defense has a lot to prove with the news that star safety Troy Polamalu will miss this game and possibly the rest of the season with a lower leg injury. Without him, the Steelers are suddenly much more vulnerable through the air. But can the Jets take advantage of it?

When the Jets have the ball...
After not scoring an offensive touchdown in nine straight quarters, the Jets can't be too happy to see road games with Pittsburgh and Chicago on the slate. These aren't the best defenses to sort out problems against.

Pittsburgh is an aggressive, hard-hitting defense that is the best in the NFL at stopping the run. The Jets haven't been opening up holes for a while, and with RT Damien Woody sidelined, the Steelers could abuse Wayne Hunter. LaDainian Tomlinson hasn't been nearly as productive lately. This may be a game for the more powerful Shonn Greene, but the best thing about Tomlinson is that he doesn't fumble, and that's key to this game. LT is also a superior pass catching back, as the screen play could be a major part of this game.

Pittsburgh loves to blitz, so blitz pickup will be of the essence. Look for the Jets to line backup OL Robert Turner as a tight end on 3rd down a lot this week to give Hunter some help. The speed of LaMarr Woodley will be tough for the Jets all game, especially after what Cameron Wake did last week.

The key to this game will be how Mark Sanchez responds to the blitzes and whether or not he can make the quick decisions and accurate throws to burn the Steelers. They don't allow many big plays, but short screens, slants, and even Brian Schottenheimer's favorite, the out pattern, will be used to get the ball out of Sanchez's hands quickly. Without Polamalu patrolling the secondary, the Jets have more freedom to throw the ball. Polamalu can hurt offenses in so many different ways. Now, the Jets can throw the ball without having to gameplan for one differencemaker. That could lead to some more deep passes being successful.

Santonio Holmes going up against his former team will be plenty motivated. Pittsburgh knows how good he is, but can they stop him? Personnel-wise, the Steelers struggle to match up with the dynamic Holmes. Braylon Edwards hasn't been used as much recently, and in a game where he will probably be catching the ball and drawing contact a lot, the Jets will probably continue to use the more reliable Jerricho Cotchery a lot. Finally, look for Dustin Keller to be a main focus of the offense. The Jets want to go back to basics on offense. That means a lot of short passes to the tight end. When the Jets offense was playing at its peak early in the year, Keller was a focal point.

The Jets have a lot of guys who should be able to make plays. But Sanchez has played with such little confidence lately, it's hard for them to do much damage. A fast start will be key for this offense. As will the loss of Polamalu, as he was the one exceptional player who could win the turnover ratio for the Steelers. Sanchez has thrown a lot of near-picks, Polamalu wouldn't drop them. Without him, the Jets will be able to have some success through the air, and even score their first touchdown in three weeks.

When the Steelers have the ball...
While the Jets' offense has been putrid lately, the Steelers haven't been a whole lot better. They didn't score an offensive touchdown last week and haven't had more than one in a game in almost a month. The primary culprit is the offensive line, which has been poor all season and now ravaged by injuries. Just as the Jets have to worry about the Steelers' blitz packages, Pittsburgh needs to do a good job picking up the blitzes, as the Jets will blitz Roethlisberger a lot. The key is sacking him when he's wrapped up and actually bring him down.

Rashard Mendenhall has had a solid season replacing Willie Parker full-time, but the Jets' run defense is pretty stout. Mendenhall isn't overly fast or overly powerful, so the Jets should do a good job containing him. He's also fumbled a few times. Isaac Redman, who is a powerful back with some pass catching ability, is the primary change-of-pace back.

Roethlisberger is so tough to defend against because he keeps plays alive. He's mobile enough to run away from people, but he's also strong enough to shake off defenders and throw even with the opposition all over him. The Jets' pass rush has looked better of late, not that that says much, and they should get some pressure. But they need to complete the job and actually bring Big Ben down.

His two primary receivers are Mike Wallace and Hines Ward. Wallace is the speedster. He's one of the best deep threats in the league, and if he's matched up against anyone other than Revis or Cromartie, the Steelers will take a shot. Revis, in his homecoming game, will probably see more Ward while the speedy Cromartie will get the speedy Wallace. Ward is a veteran possession receiver who is tough as nails but isn't much of a deep threat. Wallace is clearly the one to watch out for, as his big plays or lack thereof are the biggest key, besides turnovers, for this defense.

Overall, the Jets defense matches up nicely with Pittsburgh. They blitz enough to get after the quarterback with numbers against a bad offensive line. They stop the run better than most. Their cornerback tandem is as good as there is in the league, going against the Steelers' two receivers. The Jets might need to generate a score from the defense or special teams to win, but there's no reason the Steelers should get more than a touchdown.

Prediction
I've gone back and forth on this all week since the Polamalu injury. And the bottom line is, without Polamalu in the lineup, I think the Jets are a better team. As long as Sanchez isn't completely terrible, the Jets have a better chance to put points on the board against Pittsburgh than vice versa. Sanchez's play is the key. There will be plays to be made on the field. He needs to make enough of them to win the game. It's just not that hard to see either side winning this game. Both teams are good on defense and inconsistent on offense. In the first game A.T. (after Troy), look for the Steelers to have some communication issues and not force enough turnovers to beat a desperate and angry Jets team.
Jets 20, Steelers 17

Week 15 NFL Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 19 Dec 2010 03:40:00 +0000

Another losing week for me last week. Hard to predict Aaron Rodgers getting injured. Not as difficult to predict Carson Palmer throwing pick-sixes to the Steelers, but I thought 9.5 points would be enough. At 20-17-2, I'm one winless week away from .500 on the season. At this point, it may be a better time to fade me than follow me, but let's try to grind out a positive week.

Jets +6 over Steelers
All week, I thought the Jets had little chance to beat the Steelers. Why? While neither team will move the ball that well, Mark Sanchez has a much better chance of losing the game than Ben Roethlisberger. Then Troy Polamalu was ruled out of the game, and everything changed. Polamalu's absence is enough to knock the Steelers from an elite defense to one that can be burned through the air. Without Polamalu to make big plays and bail the team out, Sanchez should be able to have some success passing the ball. It's hard to imagine either team having a whole lot of success running the ball. This should be a tight, low scoring game that can really go either way. 6 points is a lot for this game.

Panthers -2.5 over Cardinals
Taking a team with 1 win all season at home giving points? It sounds ridiculous, but there are so many reasons to pick against Arizona. First, they're an awful team coming off a big win. They could be due for a letdown. Second, they can't stop the run, and Carolina can still move the ball on the ground. Sure, Jimmy Clausen offers no passing threat, but if the Panthers can line up and run the ball with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson, they won't need to pass much. Third, it's a 1:00 game for a western team: always a bad sign. Finally, Arizona's rookie QB John Skelton, who was barely needed last week, has a week of game film on him now. I'll look like an idiot picking a one-win team if they lose, but Arizona stinks.
Carolina 24, Arizona 13

Saints +2.5 over Ravens
New Orleans is peaking right now. They're finally firing on all cylinders offensively, and now Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are both back. The Ravens' defense is not what it once was, and nearly choking to Houston is just another example. The defense was gassed last game. If there are any lingering effects, the Saints' speed will make the Ravens pay, particularly in the air. Meanwhile, the Ravens' offense hasn't been that good all year. The running game hasn't been as good as advertised, and the passing game has been inconsistent. The Saints' speed on defense will give the Ravens' offensive tackles fits. This should be a good game, but New Orleans is quite simply the better team, and they're playing at a much higher level right now.
New Orleans 31, Baltimore 24

Jets embarrass selves in 10-6 loss to Miami Dolphins

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 08:18:00 +0000

On a grey, dreary day in the Meadowlands, the Jets lost their second straight divisional game, 10-6 to the Miami Dolphins.

The question all week was how the Jets would respond to last week's 45-3 shelacking in New England. While the defense showed up and held the Dolphins to just 131 yards, the offense couldn't manage a touchdown for the second week in a row. In all four losses this season, the Jets didn't score a touchdown. Keep that in mind for next week when you read keys to the game. The Jets are undefeated when they score a touchdown.

The problems on offense started with the quarterback, but the blame must be spread everywhere. In the first three drives, Sanchez didn't manage a single first down and turned the ball over twice. Miami capitalized with 10 points, which turned out to be all they needed.

But like the Green Bay game, it was impossible to know that at that point. Sanchez was off, showing very little confidence and rushing a lot of throws. However, he got no help. The running game averaged 2.8 yards-per-carry, as neither LaDainian Tomlinson nor Shonn Greene could get anything going. Santonio Holmes dropped a wide open touchdown pass in the 2nd quarter, Jerricho Cotchery had a bad drop late in the game, and there were other plays that could have been made to help Sanchez out. The rainy conditions clearly did not help out either group.

The offensive line also didn't block very well. Down the stretch, Cameron Wake was a terror. Sanchez fumbled three times, and was sacked six times. The runningbacks had no holes to run through either. This was an all-around below average game from this highly touted unit.

And the coaching and playcalling were just as bad as the players. If you followed my Twitter (@MackNova) during the game, you'll notice I was not pleased with Brian Schottenheimer. Now, he certainly had his hands tied with both a struggling running game and quarterback, but he was simply way too predictable. 18 of the first 25 first downs (18/29 overall) were running plays. And on third down, the Jets threw the ball 20 out of 21 times with the only run coming on a 3rd-and-1. I'm not calling for the Paul Hackett offense to return. But mix it up a little bit! Throw the ball a little more on 1st down. Run a draw play once in a while. Run the ball out of shotgun once in a while. I can't recall the Jets running out of shotgun in a long time.

Sanchez then is forced to make highly pressurized plays for half of his throws. He should be throwing more on 1st and 2nd down, and maybe a little less on 3rd down. Especially when the Jets are in that grey area of field position between the opposing 35 and midfield where the Jets could be in four-down territory. The Jets need to try to run the ball against nickel and dime formations and possibly break some bigger runs when the defense isn't expecting it. Schottenheimer is just way too predictable of a playcaller, and in five years, this offense has never been very good. I'd be quite alright with a change after the season.

Cotchery was actually the primary target for Sanchez today with 5 catches on 12 targets. Holmes was thrown to 9 times, but only came down with 2 catches. He made them count, with 57 yards, but he left a number of plays on the field, including the dropped touchdown pass. However, the least efficient receiver on the day was Dustin Keller, who caught just 3 passes on 12 targets. After scoring 2 touchdowns against Miami earlier in the season, the Dolphins clearly tried to take him out of the game, and they did a great job. Braylon Edwards was a complete non-factor, catching 1 of 2 balls thrown his way for 17 yards. Greene, Tomlinson, and Joe McKnight combined for 6 catches for 39 yards.

Virtually all those players can be considered guys who can make big plays. Yet, the Jets had one play over 20 yards all game, on a 42-yard diving grab by Holmes in the 4th quarter. There is no reason this offense, even with Sanchez playing spottily, should not score a touchdown in back-to-back games.

As for the defense, it actually played very well. After last week's dose of humble pie, they came out hungry, completely shutting down the Dolphins after the 1st quarter. Chad Henne had just 55 yards passing, but his touchdown pass was a major difference. For some reason, Bart Scott was lined up opposite Brandon Marshall in the slot with Eric Smith on top of him. Scott gave a good bump at the line, but Marshall quickly recovered, got open, and Henne hit him for the easy touchdown.

But you can't blame them for the loss. Virtually everyone played well, with Sione Pouha, Bart Scott, David Harris, Calvin Pace, Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Shaun Ellis, and Brodney Pool all making big plays.

It was the 2nd year in a row, the Jets more than doubled the Dolphins' yardage total but couldn't beat them at the Meadowlands. This year's yardage disparity (280-131) was nowhere near last year's (378-104), but it's still pretty amazing.

The unsung hero of this game was Miami punter Brandon Fields, who bombed 10 punts for a 56.4 yard average. Even when the Jets were forcing three-and-outs, Fields would switch field position every time with his booming kicks.

While the offense's ineptitude was pretty embarrassing, it wasn't nearly as disgusting as what strength and conditioning coach Sal Alosi did. On a punt, while Nolan Carroll was running out of bounds out the sideline, Alosi stuck his knee out and tripped Carroll. That puts a black eye on a franchise that has already given the rest of the NFL a reason to hate them. That was a classless move. Alosi immediately apologized for it, but he's going to face further punishment, either from the team or by the NFL. It wasn't completely blatant, but it was enough where he'll be lucky if he keeps his job.

The Jets really could not look worse right now. After all the preseason talk, the 9-2 start was a good way to quiet the haters. But scoring 9 points in two divisional games is a good way to become a punchline, especially the brash way the Jets have acted at times. Alosi's trip could not have come at a worse time, as now the Jets appear like classless losers.

Now, the Jets have to be careful not to let this season spiral out of control. With road games coming up against Pittsburgh and Chicago, it will be very dangerous. The week 17 home game against Buffalo should be enough to put the Jets in the playoffs, if they can win it, but they obviously don't want to go on a four game losing streak this late in the season.

The defense ran into a buzzsaw in the Patriots, as the Bears found out Sunday. This was more indicative of how good they can be, and it's because of this defense that the Jets should at least be in every other game this season. But the offense is in its worst slump of the season. There is no identity, the quarterback is struggling, and two of the best defenses in the NFL are on deck. Sanchez needs to play better immediately because the best way to beat both the Steelers and the Bears is by passing the ball.

The defense will prevent this season from collapsing into a free fall. But it's not good enough to carry them to the Super Bowl. The offense must pick it up not just to give the Jets any hope of reaching their lofty preseason goals, but to avoid a four game losing streak against opponents whom they will be underdogs against.

Week 14 NFL Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 12 Dec 2010 09:58:00 +0000

Wow, was last week ugly, both for the Jets and for my picks. 0-2-1 doesn't look as bad as 45-3, but both amounted for the same amount of wins. I'm now 19-15-2, trying to avoid an epic collapse back towards .500. Time for a bounceback week!

Bengals +9.5 over Steelers
Contrary to popular belief, the Bengals have not quit. They aren't very good, but they're still trying. And in a rivalry game, look for the Bengals to put out another good effort to try and halt their nine game winning streak. There's plenty of motivation: Carson Palmer want to keep their jobs, Terrell Owens and Marvin Lewis want to earn jobs elsewhere, and Chad Ochocinco wants to remain relevant. Pittsburgh is coming off a massive win against Baltimore, so they're in a letdown spot. They should win at home, but the Steelers aren't good enough in the trenches on offense to make this a blowout.
Steelers 20, Bengals 17

Cowboys +3.5 over Eagles
Dallas has its swagger back. For four weeks, the Cowboys have played like one of the best teams in the NFC. Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the NFC, but giving more than a field goal on the road to a divisional rival playing as well as Dallas is right now is risky business. Dez Bryant is out, but so are Winston Justice and Asante Samuel for Philadelphia. But where Dallas will make its mark is by running the football. Tashard Choice has infused life into a previously dormant running game, and he and Felix Jones will give the Cowboys a big boost. This is a coinflip game, and in that case, I'll take over a field goal with the home team.
Cowboys 28, Eagles 27

Packers -6.5 over Lions
Drew Stanton, folks. Sure, he played well against a good defense in Chicago. But they had very little gamefilm on Drew Stanton. The Packers just saw him start last week, and their opportunistic pass defense should be able to make some plays. Green Bay's offense will be able to throw the ball on the Lions, and then Stanton will throw some interceptions trying to catch up. This could be a sweat heading into halftime, but like the Thanksgiving game against the Patriots, this should end up as a double digit win.
Packers 31, Lions 20

Jets vs Dolphins Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 12 Dec 2010 00:18:00 +0000

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Sunday December 12, 2010, 4:15
New Meadowlands Stadium
Line: Jets -5.5

After one of the most disastrous losses in Jets history, Gang Green has a chance to regain its swagger in a home game against its other primary rival: the Miami Dolphins. No matter what the Jets say in the media, their confidence must be a little shaken, so winning this game is a must. With back-to-back road games against Pittsburgh and Chicago on deck, the Jets must be careful to prevent Monday's shelacking from being the start of a free-fall. That's what happened in 1986 after the Jets lost in week 13, 45-3 to Miami. The Jets probably need to win one more game to make the playoffs. Winning this game against a rival and possibly clinching a playoff berth would make a lot of people forget about last week's debacle. But Miami never makes it easy for the Jets, as these two teams usually play close games. The Dolphins are coming off a disappointing loss to Cleveland, so both teams will be looking to get back on track on what appears to be a very wet field on Sunday.

When the Dolphins have the ball...
Miami has been a bit of a mess offensively this year. Three different quarterbacks have made starts this year. Chad Henne is back after being benched a month ago, but he still has yet to be very effective. However, against the Jets, Henne has had some of the best games of his career. Even Jets' defensive coordinator Mike Pettine agrees, saying bluntly "It seems like he struggles against everybody but us."

Henne has a 101.7 QB rating in three games against the Jets, his highest against any team. That includes a touchdown-interception ratio of 5-1. However, Henne has clearly regressed from last season, and in the first matchup between these two teams this year, Darrelle Revis did not play. Revis is healthy and has been dominant. Brandon Marshall is the obvious one-on-one matchup for Revis this week after he put up 166 yards in the first game. Marshall missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury but is expected to return this week. Don't expect him to do much on Revis Island though. Henne will be forced to spread the ball around to Davone Bess, his tight ends, and his runningbacks. Henne has thrown an interception in 9 games in a row, including his third three interception performance last week against Cleveland. While the Jets don't create a lot of interceptions, they could have some opportunities Sunday.

Miami's running game is also not what it used to be. They average just 3.8 yards-per-carry, and neither Ronnie Brown nor Ricky Williams have posted a 100 yard game all season. They also don't get any big plays out of the running game, with just four carries over 20 yards all season and a league worst five rushing touchdowns. The Jets' run defense has been phenomenal all season long, so don't expect the Dolphins to get on track this week.

With the weather looking ugly, expect the Jets to get back on track defensively. New England, with Tom Brady spreading the ball around all over the field, was not a good matchup for the Jets. Miami, with a turnover-prone quarterback, a poor running game, and a clear number one receiver that they want to get the ball to, should be the perfect antidote for the Jets' defense.

When the Jets have the ball...
The ineptitude of the Jets' defense last week was matched by the lack of production by the offense. Mark Sanchez is coming off back-to-back below average performances, but just as Henne is typically solid against the Jets, Sanchez has been great against the Dolphins with a 103.3 quarterback rating and a 6-0 touchdown-interception ratio in his three games against Miami.

However, Sanchez has a lot to prove after last week's performance. He wasn't terrible, but he certainly wasn't good. This will be another cold-weather game, which Sanchez is inexperienced in. Miami's defense is also very solid, much higher ranked than the Patriots of last week. In fact the Dolphins only allow 201 yards-per-game through the air, 4th best in the NFL. But in per-play stats, Miami is pretty average, allowing 6.9 yards-per-attempt. They do have 29 sacks, including 12 by Cameron Wake, who has turned himself into one of the premier edge pass rushers in the NFL. The Dolphins sorely need him to get in Sanchez's head and make some big plays. Normally, he'll be lined up against D'Brickashaw Ferguson, a premier pass blocker. Look for the Dolphins to switch Wake around a little bit and try to get him matched up against Damien Woody, who isn't nearly as quick as Ferguson up front.

Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Dustin Keller will be the primary options. Holmes has been a major asset to this offense, but look for Edwards to have the bigger game. Vontae Davis will be matched up more against Holmes, leaving Edwards matched up against the less talented Sean Smith. Smith has size, but Edwards has had a lot of success against the Dolphins in his short Jets' career, and he should be able to make some plays down the field. Keller had two touchdowns in the first meeting, but he hasn't posted over 60 yards in a game since week 6, so it remains to be seen if the Jets get him as involved as they should.

As bad as the offense looked last week, you can't blame the running game. Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson combined for 23 carries for 111 yards last week. Miami has a better run defense than New England, but the Jets will still try to establish the run first, especially given the weather conditions. With the field likely wet, look for Greene to play a bigger role Sunday. His north-south style is perfect for December football games like this. The Dolphins' run defense contains a lot of big bodies, particularly Randy Starks along the defensive line, so the Jets could have a tough time dominating the trenches. But it's imperative the Jets create easy third down situations for Sanchez and the passing game.

Two wild cards for this game are kicker Nick Folk and receiver Brad Smith. Folk has struggled as of late, and any bad game could be his last in green and white. On a slippery, possibly windy day, Folk could be a major headache for the Jets. As for Smith, the Jets love to get him the ball a number of different ways. And while the Dolphins don't use the Wildcat as much as they used to, look for the Jets to use Smith to show that they can still out-Wildcat the Dolphins. It's also a way to get the ball in the hands of a playmaker without risking Sanchez throwing it.

Prediction:
Coming back home is not necessarily a great thing for the Jets. Miami is 5-1 on the road this season, their only loss coming against Baltimore. And in the first matchup, the Dolphins actually outgained the Jets 436-402. However, the biggest reason behind that was Brandon Marshall. With Marshall's lingering hamstring injury, and the return of Darrelle Revis to the lineup, Marshall should be all but taken out of the game as long as Revis is matched up against him. The Dolphins don't have many other playmakers on offense, and Henne can't take advantage of mismatches the way Brady could. If the Jets' offense can get back on track, the Jets should be able to win this game. But as badly as Jets fans want a dominant victory, they'll probably just have to settle for a tight win in a low-scoring divisional slugfest.
Jets 17, Dolphins 13

Patriots embarrass Jets on national television

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 04:40:00 +0000

This was it. The game of the year. The game that separated the men from the boys. The game that decided the division and all but finalized the AFC playoff picture.

And the Jets could not have been any flatter.

The Jets' vaunted defense was torched time and time again. The offense couldn't get out of its own way. It was a disaster from the start. The Patriots took a 17-0 lead after the 1st quarter, and the Jets never offered any resistance the rest of the way, eventually falling 45-3.

It was a beatdown in every sense of the word. This was Tom Brady and Bill Bellichick re-asserting their dominance in the AFC East. This was Rex Ryan and the Jets getting dominated like they never have in the Ryan/Sanchez era. Usually, the Jets show up. Even in the games they lose, there a couple plays you can look at that went the other team's way and get some hope out of that.

Not tonight.

Other than moderate success running the football, the Jets were thoroughly dominated and embarrassed. For all the talk the Jets do, they probably had this coming, but nobody could have predicted this much of a laugher.

Rex Ryan coached the worst game of his career. He threw an ill-advised challenge flag on the first drive of the game to try to get the spot corrected. He was right that the ball should have been a half yard further, but the refs didn't even give the Jets that. Then when Brandon Tate had a questionable touchdown later, Rex didn't throw the challenge flag. It probably wouldn't have been overturned, but that would be the much better time to use it.

Defensively, Tom Brady dissected the Jets' defense, making them look utterly helpless to stop Brady and the Patriots. Brady finished with four touchdown passes on the game. The Jets actually got three sacks, but other than that, Brady had all day to throw. He did a brilliant job moving around the pocket and exploiting everyone on the Jets' defense other than Darrelle Revis. Antonio Cromartie couldn't cover Deion Branch. Eric Smith couldn't cover Rob Gronkowski. Nobody could cover Danny Woodhead. Drew Coleman couldn't cover anyone.

The Patriots put up 24 points in the first half and another 21 in the 2nd half. All in all, the Patriots scored six touchdowns, embarrassing a Jets' defense which has been known for talking a lot of trash. Instead, the Jets have a lot of humble pie to eat.

The Jets did nothing right. The defense couldn't tackle. Smith had an awful pass interference penalty to set up the Patriots' first touchdown. They couldn't cover as receivers were open all day. And they couldn't get much pressure on Brady, who showed more mobility than usual this game.

And that's just the defense! The offense was just as bad as the defense. Sanchez had one of the worst games of his career, missing receivers all game long. Brian Schottenheimer called an unimaginative gameplan, and as usual, the sum of all the Jets' parts did not equal what it should. Against the 32nd ranked pass defense, the Jets couldn't get receivers open, couldn't make key catches, and couldn't make any throws. It was an appalling performance in the biggest game of the season. There's absolutely no reason the Jets shouldn't score a single touchdown against the Patriots' defense. None. Yet that's exactly what happened.

The funny thing is the Jets actually ran the ball pretty well. Greene and Tomlinson both averaged over 4.5 yards-per-carry. But the Jets were out of the game so early they had to abandon it quickly. Heck, even when they were still in the game, the Jets didn't run the ball enough.

It's inexcusable to lose 45-3 in any game. It's even more inexcusable to lose it to your biggest rival on national television when you've had 11 days to prepare. This game was an embarrassment from the moment the game started, and every time you thought the Jets could salvage some dignity, the Patriots wouldn't let them. The Jets were outclassed, outcoached, and outplayed.

On paper, the Jets looked like the better team, with New England having a better coach and quarterback. Belichick and Brady were the difference in this one. They came out with a gameplan and executed it to perfection. The Jets looked sloppy and unprepared from the get-go.

The sky isn't completely falling, as the Jets are 9-3 and all but assured of a playoff spot. But now the Patriots have a stranglehold in the AFC East, and the Jets would need a miracle to get a bye week and some home games in the playoffs. Then again, the way the Jets play with extra time to prepare, maybe that's a good thing.

Jets vs Patriots Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 22:16:00 +0000

New York Jets (9-2) at New England Patriots (9-2)
December 6, 2010, 8:30 PM
Gillette Stadium

One of the best rivalies in the NFL will commence again on Monday Night Football, and the stakes have rarely been higher. Both teams are 9-2 and the winner of this game will take a commanding lead in the AFC East with just four games to go. New York won the first matchup 28-14, so revenge is also at stake for the Patriots. And with both teams playing their last games last Thursday, each team has had 11 days to prepare for perhaps the biggest game of the NFL regular season to date.

When the Jets have the ball...
Much has been made of the Patriots' dead-last ranked pass defense, at least in yards-per-game. While their defense has no doubt been vulnerable through the air, some of that has to do with opposing teams needing to pass to keep up with New England's prolific offense.

Still, you don't have to look much further than the first matchup between these two teams to see the Pats' poor pass defense in action. Sanchez finished 21-30 for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first matchup. Dustin Keller found seams all game long, finishing with 115 yards and a touchdown. Braylon Edwards also added 45 yards and a touchdown, burning Darius Butler all game long.

This time around, the Jets will also add Santonio Holmes to the mix. Holmes has been a star for the Jets since returning to action week 5. He's been everything the Jets could have hoped for, and now against a vulnerable secondary in a big game, Holmes should have a big game. He's been one of the most clutch receivers in the NFL over the past few years, and if there's any time for time for him to have his biggest game of the season, it would be tonight. The Patriots' secondary has improved since the week two matchup, but the Jets' offense has also gotten tougher.

The biggest key for Sanchez in the first game was his three touchdown passes to zero interceptions. He made very few bad decisions, and against a Bill Bellichick coached defense, that's not easy. While the Patriots allow a lot of yards, they also have a lot of interceptions, with an AFC-best 15 on the season. Sanchez should have time to throw though, as New England has just 20 sacks all season long

That said, Holmes and Edwards must be salivating to face rookie Devin McCourty and former undrafted rookie Kyle Arrington. The main target of the first game, Darius Butler, has not played much since Edwards torched him in week two. Arrington has been an improvement, but he's also inexperienced in his second season from Hofstra.

However, the place where the Patriots have been burned most this year is by runningbacks catching the ball. LaDainian Tomlinson will need to play a big role in this game as the Jets' primary pass catcher. No team has allowed more yards through the air by runningbacks than New England. Tomlinson had 26 yards through the air in the first game.

There are so many different ways to attack this Patriots defense. It's up to Brian Schottenheimer to find and exploit weak parts of New England's secondary and to attack them. The Jets haven't run the ball as well as they have last year, so if Sanchez is playing well, the Jets need to keep attacking and get ahead of the Patriots. The Jets haven't scored a first quarter touchdown since week 4. While the Jets usually don't start with the ball, that's still a damning stat for Schottenheimer's pre-planned plays.

The Pats' run defense is pretty average, with opponents averaging 4.2 yards-per-carry. The Jets averaged 4.3 yards-per-carry as a team in the first game, with Tomlinson and Shonn Greene combining for 128 yards on 26 carries. They would sign up for that again this time around, as the Jets really need to run the ball well to succeed. The offense does not work if the running game can't get positive yardage. Greene and LT do a good job of rarely losing yardage on the ground, but with the weather supposed to be cold and windy, the Jets will need to run the ball well in order to move the ball consistently. Sanchez is still not very proven in cold weather games.

The biggest question is how consistent this offense can be. At times, various player look like dynamic playmakers, and the Jets usually end up with 20+ points, but it's rarely been pretty. The Jets have not converted enough of their long drives with touchdowns. In such an evenly matched game, the Jets need to put the ball in the endzone and not rely on Nick Folk. They'll need every point they can get, and Folk's confidence is probably a little rattled after a few bad performances and the Jets bringing in competition to practice this week.

In this game, the Jets just need to consistently gain positive yardage and string together long drives. New England has allowed just one pass play of 40 or more yards all season long, the fewest in the NFL. However, the Patriots' third-down defense is the worst in the NFL, with opponents converting an astounding 51% of the time. The short passing game will be absolutely key, especially on a cold, windy day in New England.

This Patriots' defense is ripe for the picking. The Jets have the weapons to take advantage, and they will have to the way New England's offense has been rolling. On paper, the Jets should be able to have a big game. But the Jets have had a number of games where they just shoot themselves in the foot all the time on offense with penalties and turnovers. Don't expect a ton of big plays by the Jets tonight, but if the Jets limit the dumb mistakes, they should be able to move the ball pretty consistently all night and there are too many individual matchups the Jets should win not to put the ball in the endzone at least two or three times.

When the Patriots have the ball...
Tom Brady has been a thorn in the Jets' side ever since Mo Lewis knocked out Drew Bledsoe and first gave him his job. However, since Rex Ryan has arrived, he's struggled to a 1-2 record and looked far more flustered than during any other time in his career vs the Jets.

The key to the Jets' defense is to force third-and-long situations and disrupt Brady's timing when he gets there. First, the Jets must shut down the Patriots' running game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a powerful, straight-forward back, but if the Jets swarm to the ball like they should, he shouldn't be a big factor.

The bigger issue out of the Patriots backfield is none other than Danny Woodhead. The former Jet fan favorite is now the enemy, as the Pats' main pass-catching back. Think Kevin Faulk with more speed. Woodhead is too quick for most of the Jets' linebackers. Last game, the Jets put Eric Smith on Kevin Faulk a lot of the game. Now without Jim Leonhard, Smith will have to play a more prominent role deeper in the secondary, so the Jets may even opt to put Kyle Wilson or Drew Coleman on Woodhead on many third downs.

Leonhard's injury isn't a huge impact on the field, as Smith isn't a big downgrade. But Leonhard is the defensive leader, and the man who makes the calls on the field. Communication issues have proven problematic all year long for this team. Most of the big plays against the Jets have been when one player isn't on the same page as everyone else. Against Brady, the Jets can't afford mental breakdowns.

The most intriguing matchup all game is how the Jets will slow Tom Brady and the passing game. The Jets are built around a talented tandem of cornerbacks. But the Patriots aren't built around Randy Moss and Wes Welker like the Jets are used to. They have reverted back to the Super Bowl form offense, where Brady spreads the ball around, using crossing routes, flat routes, and whatever else they can use to exploit matchups.

However, without Moss, the Jets are free to use Darrelle Revis across the field. Revis and Cromartie won't be matched up every play against a certain guy. On some plays, Revis could be on Wes Welker, other plays he'll be on Deion Branch or Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski. However, the Jets will need to disguise his coverages a lot because Brady is smart enough to give himself time to read coverages and adjust accordingly. It will truly be a chess match between Rex Ryan and Brady.

The other key with stopping Brady is getting pressure on him. Brady is not used to getting hit. Usually, he gets rid of the ball quickly and the offensive line gives him enough time to get off quick passes. The Jets love to blitz, but they haven't been getting to the quarterback that much at all this year. If the Jets are wasting 5 or 6 players on blitzes that don't work, Brady will exploit one-on-one matchups against safeties, linebackers, and extra cornerbacks. The Jets will send pressure, especially from the sides, but even more important than pressure is simply confusing the Pats' quarterback. They must disrupt his timing and make him think pressure is coming, even if it isn't.

The Jets should be able to stop the Patriots' run game pretty well, so the Jets must get off the field on third downs and tackle well. Brady will move the ball and make the Jets look bad at times, especially early in the game. But under Ryan, the Jets have been strong defensively in the 2nd half against Brady. Most likely, New England will be forced to be pretty one-dimensional. But stopping Brady is always easier said than done.

Prediction
The stakes for this game are widely known. This game has been hyped up for weeks now, and finally, it's here. Both statistically and on paper, the Jets are probably the better team. But New England is at home, has the better quarterback, and the better coach in Bill Belichick. However, the Jets aren't scared of the Patriots at all. The Jets' offense has a bigger edge over the Patriots' defense than vice versa. The Jets have a bigger margin for error than the Patriots because they simply have more playmakers. New York has multiple ways to beat the Patriots. New England has one: have Tom Brady and the passing game make enough plays to make up for the lack of a defense. The difference is that now both teams are confident they can make big plays late offensively. If the Jets need that big drive late by Mark Sanchez, he can deliver it to them. And as much as Jets fans worry about Nick Folk, the Patriots fans should worry about Shayne Graham. Either way, right now, I wouldn't want either player needing to make the game-winning kick for my team. This game is going to be a great one, but if both teams play to their capabilities, the Jets should be able to win a tight game.
Jets 23, Patriots 17

NFL Picks - Week 13

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 05 Dec 2010 17:24:00 +0000

A 2-1 last week gets me back on the right track. I now sit at 19-13-1 on the year. Unless I collapse in the last 5 weeks, a winning season is definitely in sight. My goal of 30 wins will not be easy, but handicapping football games never is! I like these picks a lot this week, and I'm hoping to get another winning week here, maybe even a sweep!

Bills +5.5 over Vikings
Buffalo is simply playing a lot better right now than Minnesota. With Percy Harvin not playing, the Vikings' offense is now a lot less explosive than it otherwise would be. Steve Johnson has become a big-time receiver, and after last week's disappointing performance, look for him to have a big bounceback week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well this year, and 5.5 points is simply too much for a spotty Vikings team to give the Bills.
Bills 24, Vikings 22

Titans -2.5 over Jaguars
Tennessee has struggled of late, but this is an overreaction to last week's home shutout loss. Rusty Smith won't be starting this week, it'll be Kerry Collins. Jacksonville is lucky to be where they are with a Hail Mary victory and another win on a 58-yard field goal. The Titans need this game, and in a cold weather game in Tennessee, a Jacksonville team used to warm weather just won't have enough weapons to keep up with the Titans.
Titans 24, Jaguars 17

Bears -4 over Lions
I usually like the Lions as home underdogs, but not with Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is simply not an NFL quarterback, and the Bears defense will feast on him. As long as Ndamukong Suh doesn't absolutely destroy the Bears' interior line, Jay Cutler should be able to make some big plays down the field which Stanton won't be able to make nearly as well. The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and it will shut down the Lions offense today.
Bears 27, Lions 16

Leonhard out for the season after collision in practice

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Fri, 03 Dec 2010 21:05:00 +0000

The Jets' defense suffered a major blow today as safety Jim Leonhard will miss Monday's game against New England and probably more. He injured his shin in a collision during practice with WR Patrick Turner. There's no word on how long he will be out, but as the Jets' on-field defensive playcaller, starting safety, and primary punt returner, this is a big loss.

In his place, both Brodney Pool and Eric Smith will start at safety. Look for Smith or LB David Harris to make the playcalls in Leonhard's place.

However, don't expect Kyle Wilson to return punts. Mike Westhoff says he's been disappointed with the rookie returning punts. Instead, look for Jerricho Cotchery, Antonio Cromartie, or Santonio Holmes to return punts. In such a big game, the Jets are more likely to use one of their stars at punt returner because they could use any edge they can get.

But make no mistake about it, Leonhard's injury is a big blow to a secondary that had already had its fair share of communication issues this season.

UPDATE: The Daily News Reports that Leonhard is out for the season. The "severe shin injury" has now turned into a broken tibia, also known as a broken leg.

The Significance of Monday's Jets-Patriots game

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 22:18:00 +0000

The Jets and the Patriots provide one of the NFL's best rivalries every time they step on the field. But rarely does this rivalry have the significance of the game next Monday night in Foxboro.

With both teams at 9-2 with just 4 games to go after this game, whoever wins the game will be in the AFC East driver's seat. If it's the Jets, they would essentially have a two game lead on the Patriots. A Patriots win would give them the lead with a slightly easier schedule to come, so it would be very difficult for the Jets to make up the ground necessary.

Jets' remaining schedule: MIA, @PIT, @CHI, BUF (24-20)
Patriots' remaining schedule: @CHI, GB, @BUF, MIA (23-21)

The winner of this game would move to 10-2 and have the inside track on the division AND the conference. The winner of the AFC East and the winner of the AFC North will fight it out for the no. 1 seed in the AFC. Pittsburgh and Baltimore, both 8-3, battle this week, so that division will have a lot more clarity after this week as well. If Baltimore wins, they would own the tiebreaker over New York. The Steelers-Jets tiebreaker will be determined on December 19 when the two teams meet in Pittsburgh.

But none of that matters if the Jets can't win this week. If the Jets don't win the division, they would be the no. 5 or no. 6 seed in the playoffs, looking at a likely trip to Indianapolis or San Diego (unless Jacksonville and Kansas City can really hang onto their division titles).

If the Jets lose, all hope is not lost for the division, but with the schedules listed above, it won't be easy. The best case scenario for the Jets, assuming they ran the table in their last four (no easy assumption) would be if the Patriots dropped either the game against Buffalo or Miami. That way, the Jets would win the division through the divisional record tiebreaker. The next tiebreaker after that, common games, is irrelevant because the only two non-common games the two teams played had the same result (wins). After that comes conference record, which the Jets would win right now, since one of their two losses is against an NFC opponent (Green Bay).

But all that assumes the Jets can sweep two remaining divisional games, as well as beat two tough teams in Pittsburgh and Chicago on the road. The Jets need to treat this Patriots game as their Super Bowl for the time being. Jets fans haven't had a chance to see a home playoff game since the 41-0 destruction of Peyton Manning and the Colts in January, 2003. Beat the Patriots, and chances are, the Jets will be hosting the divisional round at the New Meadowlands Stadium after enjoying a week off.

NFL Picks - Week 12

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 07:40:00 +0000

We're creeping ever closer to the end of the season, and my picks are falling off as the weeks go on. A 1-2 week last week drops me to 17-12-1. Still 5 over .500, which is nice, but my goal was for at least 30 wins, and I need to start picking winners for that to happen.

Oakland -2.5 over Miami
Oakland is a hard team to trust, but with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback and flying all the way across the country, the Raiders are the pick here. Pittsburgh ran up the score on Oakland last week after Richard Seymour hit Ben Roethlisberger in the face. But the Raiders actually have the better quarterback and the better running game. Throw in the lack of Brandon Marshall in Miami, and the Dolphins just simply aren't as good as the Raiders. Give me the home team giving less than a field goal.
Raiders 24, Dolphins 16

Jacksonville +7.5 over New York Giants
The Jaguars are playing better football than you think. Somehow, they lead the AFC South at 6-4 and are on a three game winning streak. The Giants look more impressive on paper, despite their 6-4 record, which is why they are favored by so much, but the best playmaker in their offense, Hakeem Nicks, is out. Without Nicks and Steve Smith, the Giants' offense isn't that scary. Eli Manning has thrown a lot of passes off his receivers' hands for interceptions, and that could continue with unproven players like Derek Hagan and Duke Calhoun getting extensive playing time. Both teams will want to run the ball and control the clock. The Giants are better at the point of attack, but their offense won't be able to pull away.
Giants 19, Jaguars 14

Cleveland +10.5 over Carolina
The Browns are a solid football team. They've played hard under Eric Mangini. But they still aren't talented enough to give double digit points to anybody. Jake Delhomme is back at quarterback against his former team. He's more likely to turn the ball over against the Panthers than Colt McCoy would have been. Carolina's defense isn't that bad. It's the offense that is atrocious. But the running game has improved over the last couple of weeks. The Panthers were actually competitive last week for a while. Unlike Baltimore, Cleveland doesn't have the playmakers to pull away and make it a late blowout.
Browns 17, Panthers 10

Jets Feast on Bengals, 26-10 on Thanksgiving

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 07:07:00 +0000

It wasn't always pretty, but the Jets used a big 2nd half to cruise past the Cincinnati Bengals 26-10.

The first half performance was forgettable at best, as the team left to boos down 7-3 to the lowly Bengals (2-9). But as usual, the Jets received the ball in the 2nd half. From there, they proceeded to dominate the football game and put it out of reach.

Brad Smith was the hero in this one. Smith had a 53-yard touchdown run on an end-around early in the 3rd quarter to give the Jets the lead back rather quickly. The defense forced a three-and-out, but Sanchez threw an awful interception to Rey Maualuga. Luckily, Bengals kicker Aaron Pettrey missed the field goal. The Jets went three-and-out again, but the ensuing punt grazed Bengals WR Andre Caldwell's leg, and James Ihedigbo was alert enough to dive on the ball. Two plays later, Sanchez found Santonio Holmes in the endzone for a 13-yard strike.

The rest of the game was an offensive struggle for both sides. Both defenses capitalized on field position, with the Bengals blocking a punt from the Jets' 1-yard line, setting up a short field goal. But Smith quickly answered with an 89-yard kick return for a touchdown, giving the Jets a 14 point lead. Then midway through the 4th quarter, the Jets sacked Carson Palmer in the endzone for a safety, essentially icing the game with 6:52 left.

This game wasn't perfect, especially offensively, but the defense showed up in a big way in the 2nd half. The Bengals had just 163 total yards of offense and Palmer had two interceptions. Smith and Ihedigbo also made big plays on special teams.

But the offense was a problem. Sanchez had a poor game, going 16 for 28 for just 166 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. However, he left a lot of plays on the field by making poor throws, and as a result, the Jets failed to string too many drives together and only scored on one of their two red zone opportunities.

The Jets opted to play conservatively, keeping the ball on the ground and keeping the Bengals' offense off the field. Shonn Greene, Brad Smith, and LaDainian Tomlinson combined for 174 yards rushing. Neither Greene nor Tomlinson averaged 4 yards per carry, but they consistently would gain at least a couple. Smith's 53-yard touchdown pads those numbers a bit as well.

Next is New England. The defense appears mostly ready for them, but is the offense? The passing game wasn't in sync, and the rushing game was mostly average. And the penalties keep continuing: 8 for 64 yards in this game. Still, as good teams need to do, they did enough in the 2nd half not only to win, but win comfortably. Kind of like the Patriots earlier in the day, who, like the Jets, trailed at halftime, only to win by double digits.

With both the Jets and Patriots at 9-2, the winner takes command of this division with just four games to go after it. If the Jets win it, they would also own the tiebreaker, giving them a dominant lead. But the Patriots are dominant in Foxboro. This is going to be the most important regular season game before Christmas in years. The Jets better be ready.

Jets vs Bengals preview

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 18:49:00 +0000

New York Jets (8-2) vs Cincinnati Bengals (2-8)
Thursday, November 25, 2010
New Meadowlands Stadium
Line: Jets -8.5

After yet another roller coaster victory, the New York Jets hope to put together a more convincing performance on Thanksgiving day and give their fans something to be thankful for. The Bengals are coming off a second half collapse at home to the Buffalo Bills, allowing 35 points in the 2nd half alone. The Bengals have nothing to play for at this point, but in front of a national audience, they should show up and play pretty hard. If the Jets are looking ahead to next week's epic showdown with New England, they could potentially be picked off.

When the Bengals have the ball..
The Bengals have transformed from a run-heavy offense to a pass-first offense this season. Much of that has to do with the addition of the mercurial Terrell Owens. T.O. has been a revelation this year with his personal play, but the team results have been awful. And with Chad Ochocinco on the other side wanting his fair share of passes, it's no surprise that Owens and Ochocinco have combined for 211 targets in the first 10 games. By contrast, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Jerricho Cotchery combine for 190. When Palmer goes back to pass, it's usually to one of his top two receivers. And that's good news for this Jets' defense.

It's no secret that the biggest strength of this defense is the cornerback play. Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie is the best cornerback tandem in the league. It's the rest of the pass defense that has let the Jets down this season. If Palmer forces the ball to his top two receivers, who will almost certainly be covered by the Jets' dynamic duo, he'll have a tough time moving the ball. Slot receiver Jordan Shipley and rookie tight end Jermaine Gresham are nice secondary targets. If Palmer tries to exploit mismatches against the Jets' safeties, linebackers, and other cornerbacks, he'll have more success.

Unless, of course, the Jets don't give him time to make all of his progressions. That hasn't been the case this season. The Jets keep blitzing, but they have barely provided any pressure all season. The Bengals' offensive line is poor. While Palmer hasn't gotten sacked a ton this year, good defenses have been able to apply pressure and force mistakes. Revis and Cromartie are good enough to capitalize on those mistakes, if the Jets can find a way to get in Palmer's face.

That offensive line has also failed to create many holes for Cedric Benson. After resurrecting his career last season, Benson only averages 3.7 yards-per-carry this season. The Jets have been great against the run all season long, including last week for the most part against Arian Foster. The Jets allow just 90.3 yards-per-game on the ground and 3.5 yards-per-carry. Cincinnati also doesn't make big gains on the ground, and the Jets have only allowed 4 runs of over 20 yards (none over 40), so that probably won't start now.

This game could become a blowout if the Jets can start forcing turnovers. That's been a problem for this year, especially getting interceptions. The defense has forced 9 fumbles this year, tied for the NFL lead but just 5 interceptions, 2nd worst in the NFL. That's been the missing element of this defense for two years, and rather than improve, it's become a bigger problem. The biggest reason for that is the lack of a pass rush (just 17 sacks all season, 26th in the NFL). That's the key to this game for Gang Green: figure out how to get the pass rush working again, so Tom Brady doesn't have all day to sit in the pocket next week, and Palmer locks down on his main target this week.

When the Jets have the ball...
During the Bengals' 6 game losing streak, they've allowed 22 or more points every week. This past week was the worst showing of the year by this defense, allowing 35 2nd half points to the Bills at home. It's very possible this defense has quit and will throw in the towel if the Jets start of strong. The pass defense, led by cornerbacks Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, are strong, but the Bengals may have the worst pass rush in the NFL. Sanchez should have time to make his reads and find the open man.

Cincinnati's run defense is just as bad. The linebackers are fairly slow and undisciplined, so the Jets should get back on track on the ground. The Bengals allow 4.4 yards-per-carry and the most 20+ yard runs in the NFL (13). Only one has broken for more than 40 yards, but it just shows the Jets can get to the 2nd level when running the ball. Look for the Jets to try to run the ball a little more early this week, even getting Brad Smith involved in the Wildcat. It was extremely successful last year against the Bengals, so it's definitely worth trying again this time around. Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson will also take turns getting their shots at this defense.

Sanchez will have to take care of the ball, though. Cincinnati has 12 interceptions on the year, and Hall and Joseph can make plays on receivers. But they aren't shut-down cornerbacks, so Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes will win their share of battles. Sanchez had one of the best games of the season last year in the playoffs against the Bengals, getting Dustin Keller involved a lot. Keller has been largely forgotten over the past several weeks. This could be a good time to unleash him again.

But the Jets must first convert their drives into touchdowns, not field goals. The Jets have been poor in the red zone all year at getting 7 instead of 3, and that's something that must improve, especially with next week's showdown with New England on the schedule. The Jets have enough weapons. It's just a matter of playcalling and execution.

Prediction:
At first I was worried about a letdown for the Jets, looking ahead to New England. But this Bengals team has all but given up, and the Jets are a terrible matchup for them. They have the cornerbacks to beat Ochocinco and Owens, and while the pass rush hasn't been good, the Jets will send enough numbers to fluster Palmer a little bit. Meanwhile, after Cedric Benson ran all over the Jets in the playoffs last season, you can bet the Jets will be ready for him, despite his subpar year. The Bengals defense has not been very good this year, and the Jets are almost certain to score 20+ points. And if they get ahead, this Bengals team is likely to implode like last week.
Jets 27, Bengals 13

Another week, another stunner: Jets shock Texans 30-27

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 06:56:00 +0000

Another week, another improbable victory

After blowing a 16 point 4th quarter lead, Mark Sanchez found Santonio Holmes in the endzone with 10 seconds remaining to give the Jets a 30-27 victory.

For most of the game, it looked like the Jets were the better team, but not by enough to get a comfortable lead. The Jets failed to convert in the red zone in two of their three first half opportunities, only giving themselves a 13-7 lead at the break. When Sanchez found Holmes for a 41-yard touchdown in the 3rd quarter, it looked like things might finally be easy. The Jets took a 23-7 lead early in the 4th quarter, and it looked like the Jets would win fairly comfortably.

Not so fast. Houston marched down the field quickly to kick a field goal. Then Shonn Greene fumbled. All of a sudden, Joel Dreessen was running wide open down the left sideline into the endzone, and it was a 6 point game. With nearly a touchdown lead, the Jets still had their chances, but a special teams penalty put the Jets back at their own 9 yardline, and the offense was soon forced to punt.

The Texans got the ball back needing a touchdown, down by 6 with 6:09 to go. In 7 plays, Matt Schaub efficiently moved the ball 62 yards to the Jets' 11 yardline. Arian Foster took care of it from there, punching the ball into the endzone with 2:18 left.

Needing just one point with two time outs left, the Jets still had a great chance to win. But another special teams penalty pinned the Jets back at their own 23. Two plays later, Sanchez was hurried and threw an ill-advised interception to linebacker Kevin Bentley. With just two time outs left and the two minute warning past, it looked dire for the Jets. But the defense held, limiting Houston to a field goal.

With 49 seconds left, Sanchez took over. He twice checked down to Tomlinson to get chunks of yardage, to get into Texan territory. After an incompletion, Sanchez found a streaking Edwards down the sideline for a huge 42 yard gain to set the Jets up with a chance. The next play, Sanchez hit Holmes on a well-timed fade in the endzone to win the game.

It shouldn't have come down to that. That's obvious. But good teams find ways to win games they have no business winning. The Jets should have won this game easily with a 16 point lead in the 4th quarter, but after blowing it, the team had the cool to find a way back and find a way to win the game. Houston is a team that has a history of blowing games late. The Jets used to. Today showed the Jets may have finally moved past that.

The communication issues on defense need to be fixed. There have been problems all year long with blown coverages, with today's game having the most blatant one all year when Dreessen was left wide open. That simply can't happen. Neither can Schaub's next drive, where he took his team 73 yards without even having to deal with a 3rd down.

This also marks the 5th straight game the Jets failed to get an interception. For a defense that wants to make big plays, they make very few. They forced another fumble today, but opposing quarterbacks are rarely pressured, so they continue to have time to make precise throws against the Jets' secondary. Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are great cornerbacks, but without pressure, it's hard for either to make interceptions, and it's easier for quarterbacks to check down to other options.

The offense also has its fair share of issues, particularly in the running game. Sanchez again was hit and miss in the passing game, but when the game was on the line, he delivered again. Against the worst pass defense in the NFL, he should be putting up good numbers though.

The bigger issue is the lack of a running game. Greene and Tomlinson combined for just 78 yards on 27 carries, and Greene's fumble today caused this game to turn. He doesn't fumble enough where he's earned a big reputation as a fumbler, but that is his 2nd this year. Tomlinson made some plays in the passing game, but there just weren't many holes to run through.

Damien Woody's absence was clearly felt. He injured his MCL early in the game. Backup Wayne Hunter was an obvious downgrade, but the line still needs to do a better job creating holes. If Woody misses significant time, that's a big blow. He isn't ruling himself out for the Thanksgiving game against the Bengals, but considering he didn't return to the game Sunday and the short week of rest, it would seem unlikely he would suit up.

Despite all the warts, the Jets played very well in spurts. Both sides of the ball are creating as many questions as they are answering, but despite it all, the Jets still have the best record in the NFL at 8-2. Unfortunately, New England keeps winning also, beating Indianapolis Sunday. The two teams are on a collision course for that game Monday December 6th. Like the Jets, the Patriots will play on Thanksgiving, traveling to Detroit. If both teams take care of business Thursday, that game will likely decide the division, especially if the Jets win and sweep the season series. However, if the Jets don't play better, and play for all 60 minutes, they probably won't be able to beat New England.

Week 11 NFL Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 21 Nov 2010 16:02:00 +0000

After a 1-2 week, my record stands at 16-10-1. Time to end my mini cold streak with 3 winners this week.

Lions +6.5 over Cowboys

Detroit has a ridiculously long road losing streak, but this is a fade on Dallas instead of a ringing endorsement of the Lions. Dallas should not be a touchdown favorite on anyone at this point. Calvin Johnson should make enough plays to keep this close, and Dallas has no answer for Ndamukong Suh.

Detroit 24, Dallas 21

San Diego -9.5 over Denver

Coming off a bye, the Chargers are due for a dominant performance. Offensively and defensively, San Diego has great numbers. Denver can throw the ball, but on the road, their defense will get torched. Look for Philip Rivers to put up a big number.

Chargers 38, Broncos 24

Oakland +7.5 over Pittsburgh

The Steelers have no offensive line, and Oakland is hot. The bye is a good thing for the Raiders, who needed to get Nnamdi Asomugha, Louis Murphy, and Zach Miller all healthy. The Raiders won this matchup last year and should have a chance this year. At the very least, they will keep it within the number.

Steelers 20, Raiders 17

Week 11 NFL Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Mackenzie Kraemer) — Sun, 21 Nov 2010 16:02:00 +0000