Sunday, October 10, 2010

Week 5 NFL Picks

Unbelievable run for me in picks. 10-2 this year. Not as confident with this week's picks as this week's lines appear really sharp, but I need to keep this streak going!

Detroit -3 over St. Louis
What better place to start than with an 0-4 team laying points? But Detroit is a much better team at home, and their record doesn't reflect their effort. The Lions have played 3 of their 4 games on the road, against Chicago, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Green Bay, and they've been in all four games. Coming back home, the Lions have more weapons than St. Louis and could give rookie Sam Bradford some trouble. Bradford is good, but let's face it, the Rams aren't going to win three in a row. The Lions are motivated to get their first win, and they face a big step down in competition. Look for Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best to have big games for Detroit who wins by double digits.
Lions 28, Rams 17

Buffalo over Jacksonville, pickem
You can't be afraid to pick bad teams if you want to make money. That said, even I'm a little worried about taking the Lions and the Bills. If you follow me, just convince yourself you're betting against the Rams and Jaguars after wins on the road. The Bills are 0-4 and won't have many chances to get wins, so they will play hard here. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are a couple good runningbacks, and the Bills' receivers might actually be able to make plays against the Jaguars' weak secondary and pass rush. Maurice Jones-Drew is dangerous, but after the Jets gashed the Bills' running game, Buffalo will be more motivated not to be embarrassed. But really, this is just a play against Jacksonville after a huge home win against Indianapolis. After beating their arch rivals, in a bit of a fluky game, now they travel to face a Buffalo team. Jacksonville is the type of team that will come out flat after a big win. Two teams with opposite motivation, give me the home team.
Bills 17, Jaguars 13

Texans -3 over Giants
Houston's offense is rolling right now. Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing and has been hard to stop all season. And if Andre Johnson plays, the passing offense is extremely dangerous as well. The Giants have nobody who can match up with Johnson, and they won't be able to get pressure like they did last week against Chicago. And defensively, while Houston can be thrown on, the Texans will bring back Brian Cushing, their best linebacker, who will be a huge addition to this defense. This could be a high scoring game, but it's hard to see the Texans losing this one at home.
Texans 31, Giants 23


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