Sunday, September 26, 2010

Week 3 NFL Picks

Back to back 2-1 weeks put me at 4-2 this year. Like this week's card a lot, hoping to have another winning week!

Chiefs +4.5 over 49ers
Kansas City is 2-0, yet they're getting over a field goal at home against an 0-2 San Francisco team. The 49ers did look good on Monday night, and their season may be on the line, but the Chiefs won't be easy. San Francisco has a short week and they're playing at 1:00 PM EST, something west coast teams traditionally struggle with. Kansas City has the running game to move the football, and the defense has improved a lot. And I don't trust Alex Smith laying 4.5 points on the road to anyone. Look for a close game here. Regardless of the outcome, I still think the 49ers win the awful NFC West and the Chiefs don't make the playoffs. But a Kansas City win sure would make it interesting.
Chiefs 20, 49ers 17

Seahawks +6 over Chargers
Another home underdog! Seattle is a Jekyll and Hyde team: they're great at home, they're terrible on the road. San Diego is a team that sleepwalks through the beginning of the season every year, and their offense isn't nearly as explosive as usual. Fullback Mike Tolbert will carry the bulk of the load on the ground, and the offense may struggle to get on track. The crowd will be into it, and the Chargers don't have the pass rushers to take advantage of an inexperienced Seahawk offensive line. Meanwhile, the Seahawks do have enough of a pass rush to fluster Rivers a little bit. This is going to be an ugly football game, but Seattle will make a game of it, lead at halftime, and hang on for the cover.
Chargers 21, Seahawks 20

Colts -6.5 over Broncos
The Broncos' secondary is banged up just in time for Peyton Manning and the Colts. Not good. Manning will put up big numbers as is usual for him, while the Broncos lack the firepower to keep up. Once the Colts get up on you, their pass rushers can have free reign to get after the quarterback, and it's hard for them to lose. With Knowshon Moreno not playing, it's not likely the Broncos can take advantage of a mediocre Colt run defense. I know I've been liking the home underdogs this week, and I kind of like how Josh McDaniels gets that team to play, but Manning is a machine Denver won't be able to stop.
Colts 27, Broncos 14

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

where did you get KC +4.5, the line is +2.5