Saturday, October 31, 2009

NFL Picks - Week 8

Thought I was going to go 3-0 at times last week, but Miami and Minnesota both blew late covers, so another 1-2. At 11-10, another losing week drags me back to .500, so this is big.

Detroit -4 over St. Louis
What better way to try and get a win by picking a team that has won one game in almost two seasons when they're 4 point favorites? Well, they've played much better this year, and they are coming off a bye. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson both look like they will play, making the Lions head and shoulders above the Rams. Steven Jackson will get his first rushing touchdown of the season, but the Lions will put up some points, and the Rams can't throw the football.
Detroit 24, St. Louis 13

Minnesota +3 over Green Bay
In two seasons, what have people seen in Green Bay that would make people think they're equal with the Vikings? Minnesota won the first game, and they'll win this one, too. Aaron Rodgers got killed by Jared Allen in game one, and he will again this time. Antoine Winfield being out hurts, but Rodgers won't have time to throw downfield to Greg Jennings anyway. And his top checkdown option, TE Jermichael Finley, doesn't look like he'll be playing. This bet has little to do with Brett Favre and everything to do with the fact that the Vikings dominate the trenches on both sides of the football. Favre is still playing like the Vikings expected him to, so it's not time to fade him yet.
Minnesota 24, Green Bay 17

Oakland +17 over San Diego
I know Oakland is awful. But San Diego has not played nearly well enough to be a 17 point favorite against anyone. The Raiders may lay down and die again, but they also could have the advantage in the trenches, and if the Raiders can run the ball and stop the run, which they very well may, I'll gladly take them with 17 points. Maybe JaMarcus Russell plays better after he was benched last week. Probably not, but hey, you never know. It's a road game, but they're still playing in their own state, so travel is not an issue.
San Diego 24, Oakland 13

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