Sunday, October 11, 2009

NFL Picks, Week 5

7-5 on the year, 1-2 last week. Back-to-back losing weeks. Need to turn it around this week. Let's give it a shot...

Browns +6.5 over Bills
Look, I hate taking Cleveland as much as you do. But this is completely a play against Buffalo. They have no offensive line, and the already mediocre defense is already banged up. And they're giving someone 6.5 points? Give me a break. Cleveland is a better team with Derek Anderson at quarterback, and as much as I love that the Jets got Edwards, he wasn't helping them out very much. Cincinnati is playing well right now, and Cleveland held them down that entire game defensively. And let's be honest, Eric Mangini is a better coach than Dick Jauron.
Cleveland 17, Buffalo 16

Jets -2 over Dolphins
I won't give a prediction away until tomorrow when I post the full preview, but let's just say I think the Jets will win. The defense is playing at an obscene level right now, and the Dolphins do not have the personnel to put points on the board. New Orleans, New England, and Houston have already been stymied. Chad Henne and the Dolphins won't be able to put that many points on the board. The Jets are banged up on offense, but no one knows how the Jets will use Braylon Edwards. However, I think the distance maker will be Dustin Keller. The Dolphins don't have anyone who can really defend him, and if Edwards can make an early impact, the Jets could have much needed balance offensively to go with that dominant defense. Miami did have a big win last week, but Buffalo is a complete mess right now. Gang Green will win.

Bengals +8.5 over Ravens
I love the Ravens as much as everybody else, but this is simply too many points to give them. I've picked the Bengals before this year, and I'm going back to the well. The defense is quite solid. Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall have the upper hand against Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, and sack artist Antwan Odom should be going against rookie Michael Oher. For the first time in years, the Bengals offensive line can play physically with the Ravens, and they won't crumple. Will it be enough to win? That would be a tall order. But getting more than a touchdown is a gift.
Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 20

Other leans
Titans +4.5 over Colts
Falcons +3 over 49ers
Lions +11.5 over Steelers
Chiefs +7.5 over Cowboys
Broncos +4 over Patriots
Texans +5.5 over Cardinals

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