Friday, October 3, 2008

NFL Picks: Week 5

2-1 last week. 5-5-2 on the season. I like these three picks this week in terms of situational plays, especially the last two. The first game, I just think could be a shootout.

Cincinnati vs Dallas over 45.
Dallas is good, especially on offense, where they will want to take out frustrations on a slightly overmatched Cincinnati defense. The question is, can Cincinnati's offense contribute enough points to the total? Cincinnati is devalued because of how badly Ryan Fitzpatrick looked, but Carson Palmer sounds like he's playing, and that's like night and day. The talented Chris Henry will actually play. Forget all his off-field concerns, the kid can play, and he might be able to make enough of an impact right away to help. That gives Palmer three nice weapons offensively against a secondary that got torched at times last week. They should be able to put up at least 2-3 touchdowns as a team, and Dallas will likely raise that another score or two, bringing this game over the total.
Dallas 34, Cincinnati 24

Arizona -1.5 vs Buffalo
Arizona is a different team at home. Buffalo will be on the road for the 2nd straight week, in hot and humid Arizona. I think the Cardinals will come out angry after getting embarrassed by the New York Jets (that felt good to write). As good as Buffalo is, their passing game is not particularly impressive, and Terrence McGee's absence hurts Buffalo's defense more than Anquan Boldin hurts the Cardinals. Not the best spot for Buffalo, and I think Arizona comes out fired up. They self-destructed in the first half against the Jets, and after losing two in a row on the east coast, they will be happy to be home again.
24-14 Arizona

Miami +7 against San Diego
A west coast team flying across the country to play at 1:00 on the road against a team coming off a bye week, laying 7 points? I'm not believers in the Dolphins just yet, but this is a great scenario for them. San Diego was losing by two scores heading into the 4th quarter against Oakland last week. I do know that Miami beat a team that hadn't lost in the regular season in two seasons by 25 in their own building. Fluke? Probably, but impressive enough where they shouldn't be underdogs by this much.
24-20 Chargers