Sunday, October 12, 2008

Late NFL Picks for Week 6

All these lines are pretty sharp now, but hopefully after a 3-0 week, I can keep it rolling. 8-5-2 on the season, here are my three for this week.

Chicago vs Atlanta under 44
44 points is a little high for Kyle Orton and Matt Ryan. I know both have played pretty well, but come on now. Atlanta's defense is underrated as long as sack leader John Abraham (remember him?) is healthy. Chicago's strength is stopping the run. Atlanta's strength is running the ball. I'll trust Chicago to slow Turner down enough, but the Falcons play well enough at home to keep it close. Chicago's offense doesn't impress me too much yet. Did I mention that Roddy White missed Friday's practice? Hopefully for my fantasy team, he plays, but he could be slowed down a bit.

Chicago 17, Atlanta 13

Green Bay +1 at Seattle
I know the Packers are hurting on defense. I know Aaron Rodgers is one hit away from being knocked out of the game. But Seattle got blown out 44-6 last week to the Giants, have looked horrid all year, and now Charlie Frye is going to start? And the Packers are getting a point? Seattle is better at home, but let's call a spade a spade here and say the Seahawks are a bad football team right now.

Green Bay 28, Seattle 9

Arizona +5 vs Dallas
Second straight week I'm on Arizona. It's easy to pick against Dallas with the spread each week because they are such a public team, and this week that is certainly the case. People remember the Jets putting up 56 on this Cardinals defense, but with Adrian Wilson back, the secondary is much better. Cowboys fans travel well, but it's still in Arizona, and their fans should be fired up. Besides, is it possible that Dallas is just overrated? The defense allowed 37 points to the Eagles, Kurt Warner and company should be able to put points on the board even without Anquan Boldin. I don't know if Arizona will win; I make this a coinflip game. In that case, give me the 5 points.

Dallas 27, Arizona 24

Will preview the Jets vs Bengals later (and I don't expect it to be close).

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